NO AUGUST BREAK
• An eventful August heralds a volatile September
• 2Q13 GDP numbers revised upwards and US data releases point to a manufacturing revival
• Disappointing August payroll numbers underscore mediocre growth and performance
• Normalizing interest rates reflect in part market expectations of Fed tapering
• Heightened geopolitical risks spook markets
• Strong global PMIs point to a global manufacturing bounceback
The month of August has been particularly eventful, with rising geopolitical risks in the Middle East, surging oil prices, stressed emerging markets and troubled equity markets. September is also busy: a G20 summit (September 6th), Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC, September 18th), German elections (September 22nd), and potentially, a Congressional vote of authorization for military action in Syria. However, with the exception of the Syrian vote, no surprises are expected. In October, we expect a long-drawn confrontation between the Administration and the GOP in Congress over the FY2014 and raising the debt ceiling.
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