Advocacy Investing® Portfolio Strategies, Issue 38


• The eurozone’s make or break moment

• Is the likely “Grexit” another Lehman moment?

• Economic indicators point south once again

• Sharp reversal in US employment situation

• The US economy’s loss of momentum could dampen further the tepid recovery

• Investors overwhelmed by fear push “safe” yields to historic lows

Negative Global Developments: The US economy is once again dragged down by negative global developments. The latest data releases show that we are experiencing a sharper-than-expected loss in momentum. Real GDP growth for 1Q12 was revised downward from 2.2% (annualized) to 1.9%. This loss in momentum is especially felt in industrial production and manufacturing sectors, which had provided the economy with a strong stimulus in the first months of the year. Survey data, while generally still in positive territory, underscored this slowdown. The Empire State index rose to 17.09 in May from 6.56 in April. In contrast, the Philadelphia Fed index fell into negative territory. The Chicago PMI fell sharply to 52.5, the lowest level since September 2009, and the Manufacturing ISM fell slightly to 53.5. Industrial production rose by 1.1% (month-on-month, m/m), but durable goods fell by 6.3% m/m. Factory orders were down 0.6% (m/m), the third consecutive monthly decline. The ISM Non-manufacturing delivered a positive surprise, rising to 53.5 from 53.3. Nevertheless, the consumer seems to be holding. Personal income rose by 0.2% (m/m), while personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased by 0.3%. However, consumer confidence indices were mixed (up for the University of Michigan-Reuters index, down for the Conference board), which could indicate a negative shift in consumer behavior.

LOADING PDF: If there are any problems, click here to download the file.

DISCLAIMER: Because of the generality of this update, the information provided herein may not be applicable in all situations and should not be acted upon without specific legal advice based on particular situations.

© The Law Offices of Marc J. Lane, a Professional Corporation | Attorney Advertising

Written by:


The Law Offices of Marc J. Lane, a Professional Corporation on:

JD Supra Readers' Choice 2016 Awards
Reporters on Deadline

"My best business intelligence, in one easy email…"

Your first step to building a free, personalized, morning email brief covering pertinent authors and topics on JD Supra:

Sign up to create your digest using LinkedIn*

*By using the service, you signify your acceptance of JD Supra's Privacy Policy.

Already signed up? Log in here

*With LinkedIn, you don't need to create a separate login to manage your free JD Supra account, and we can make suggestions based on your needs and interests. We will not post anything on LinkedIn in your name. Or, sign up using your email address.