On Thursday 23 June 2016 a referendum to decide whether the UK should leave or remain in the European Union was held in the UK. The Leave campaign won by 51.9% to 48.1% of the votes cast. One of the main consequences of the referendum was the appointment of a new Prime Minister, Theresa May, a former secretary of state whose key message since the result has been “Brexit means Brexit”. This has lead commentators to speculate that a “hard Brexit” is more than likely. The result of which could involve the UK refusing to compromise on issues such as the free movement of people in order to maintain access to the EU single market. Mrs May has confirmed that she aims to trigger Article 50, the process for any country that wishes to leave the EU, by the end of March 2017.

Since the referendum vote, it has not, however, been plain sailing for Mrs May. After a court battle, the UK's Supreme Court ruled in January that Parliament must be consulted before Article 50 is invoked. On 1st March 2017, the House of Lords voted to guarantee the rights of EU citizens already in the UK to ensure a “meaningful vote” for Parliament before any Brexit deal is agreed with the EU. However, on 14 March 2017, peers in the House of Lords backed down over these rights paving the way for the Brexit bill to be approved, receive Royal Assent and become law. It is now almost a certainty that Article 50 will be triggered by the UK government by the end of March 2017. Whilst, the UK will have two years to negotiate its withdrawal from the EU once initiated, the negotiation process is unchartered territory. Commentators have therefore suggested that the UK could in fact take up to six years to complete exit negotiations. No nation state has ever left the EU with the exception of Greenland, one of Denmark's overseas territories, which held a referendum in 1982, after gaining a greater degree of self-government, and voted by 52% to 48% to leave, which it duly did after a period of negotiation.

EU law will remain in effect in the UK until the country ceases being a member. The UK will continue to abide by EU treaties and laws, but will not take part in any decision-making during the exit process. 

In terms of the UK Government’s key requirements, it has been stated that the UK would like a free trade deal that will allow access to the EU’s single market; however there has been resistance from member states and so it is unlikely that this will happen. Mrs May wants to agree a customs union where countries agree not to impose tariffs on each others’ goods and have a common tariff on goods coming in from elsewhere. The UK is currently part of the EU customs union but that (currently) prevents the UK being able to negotiate its own trade deals with other countries.

The UK Government has also said that EU citizens will have to wait for confirmation concerning their right to permanent residence in the UK which, in turn, will depend on negotiations between member states and British nationals living in the EU. If the UK Government opts to impose work permit restrictions on EU nationals in the UK, then other member states may well reciprocate, meaning Britons would have to apply for visas to work in the EU.

Mrs May has said one of the main messages she has taken from the Leave vote is that the British people want to see a reduction in immigration. It is with relative certainty that one of the main focuses of Brexit negotiations will therefore be reducing net migration (ie the difference between the numbers entering and leaving the country) down to a "sustainable" level. 

What happens next?
Once Article 50 is triggered, the first Brexit negotiations will  be among the other 27 members of the EU to discuss how they will negotiate with the UK. It is estimated that it could take up to three weeks to build a consensus which will then need to be finalised at an EU summit. Key areas for immediate discussion are thought to include the UK’s exit fees and the rights of citizens (both UK and EU). Even after the summit, further delays and work will still be required before negotiations can formally take place. Official talks are therefore likely to begin in early June. 

Without question, the Prime Minister will make British and European history this month and the UK’s future will rest on the resolution of these talks and what sort of deal, if any, Mrs May strikes with the rest of the EU on an exit bill.