Estimated Financial Effects of Expanding Oregon’s Medicaid Program under the Affordable Care Act (2014-2020)

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Manatt Health Solutions, The State Health Access Data Assistance Center and Oregon Health Sciences University's Center for Health Systems Effectiveness collaborated to produce this report to help inform Oregon policymakers as they consider the decision whether to expand Medicaid.

Summary -

The Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (ACA) calls for states to expand Medicaid to low income adults and provides federal funds to cover 100 percent of the costs of these ?newly eligibles? from 2014 through 2016. The federal matching rate will then decrease over the next four years to 90 percent in 2020. In June 2012, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled on the constitutionality of key provisions of the ACA, and while the ruling did not change the Medicaid expansion provisions, it effectively made expansion optional for states. The purpose of this report is to provide information to Oregon policy makers as they consider the decision whether to expand Medicaid. The analysis was produced in collaboration by the State Health Access Data Assistance Center (SHADAC), Oregon Health Sciences University’s Center for Health Systems Effectiveness (CHSE), and Manatt Health Solutions.

This analysis estimates the potential costs and benefits of the ACA Medicaid expansion to the State of Oregon. It assesses the effect on state general funds, other state funds and the overall impact on health care expenditures. The expenditure estimates incorporated in this analysis are net of the effects of Oregon’s health system transformation. Without health system transformation, the costs of expansion would increase.

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