Totaro & Associates has released a new research note regarding the price pressure and overcapacity within the wind industry. Overall, what can be expected in the wind industry in the next two years are regional Tier 2/3 wind OEMs joining forces in the hopes of forming a Tier 1/2 in which the sum is more globally competitive than the regional parts.
In certain markets manufacturing capacity simply exceeds demand, so layoffs as well as divestments of manufacturing assets can be expected. Consolidation further down in the supply chain is also possible as some companies may look to divest the portion of their business related to wind. Failure of certain struggling wind companies or component suppliers is also not out of the question. Unless they have an IP portfolio worth acquiring or they offer other strategic value, then they are likely to simply fail under their own weight. While everyone expects consolidation to happen, the complexity of the global demand picture and the overall excess in manufacturing capacity makes it difficult to expect the industry to just continue to limp along. The good news is the truly competitive technologies and companies behind them will rise to the top and emerge from this period stronger, more globally diverse, likely more vertically integrated, and able to fulfill the promise of cost-competitive clean energy.
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