In what has become a truism of U.S. politics over decades, a first-term president's political party typically does not fare well in the midterm elections. With President Joe Biden's approval ratings at a nadir, his domestic agenda stuck, inflation rising, and Democrats clinging to extremely narrow majorities in both the U.S. House of Representatives and U.S. Senate, the 2022 midterm elections are likely to result in a political realignment.
If the generic ballot proves accurate, there is a very high likelihood that Republicans will secure a comfortable majority in the House of Representatives. There is also a realistic chance that Republicans secure a narrow majority in the Senate.
Beyond polling and the proclamations of pundits, the bevy of early retirements announced throughout the second half of 2021 by Democratic members of Congress, including committee chairs, underscores the pessimism shared by Democratic lawmakers about their expectations for the midterms.
The apparent collapse of the centerpiece of Biden's domestic agenda, the Build Back Better legislation, will likely cause another wave of Democratic lawmakers to announce their retirements in the first few months of 2022.
The poor showings by Democratic officeholders in the off-year elections in New Jersey and Virginia could prove to be a harbinger of things to come for the Democratic Party.
A change in control of either or both houses of Congress will have a significant impact on congressional oversight and investigations.
As has been the case in past cycles, the increasing expectation of a political realignment on Capitol Hill is likely to cause discernible changes in strategies being employed on both sides of the aisle — both in the immediate and longer term.
We address some of these foreseeable developments in the rest of this piece, please read more here.
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