All the pundits are now making their educated guesses as to whether immigration reform is finally possible or even remotely likely. If there is a consensus on any one point, it is that Republican leadership, Democratic leadership and the President are looking forward to the 2016 elections when thinking about immigration reform. The question is whether the reality of 2014 and 2015 will get in the way.
To help Democratic candidates in this election, the President deferred unilateral administration action, which he had continuously promised. Well, that didn’t turn out too well, and it enraged many core supporters, especially those within the Hispanic community. Looking to 2016, it seems that the President would feel he has no choice but to immediately move forward with an administrative initiative, however much this might anger the Republicans.
The Republicans, on the other hand, may feel that they have the luxury and perhaps the imperative to sound angry if the President takes such an initiative, but they cannot afford to totally abandon immigration reform either, unless they also are prepared to abandon the Hispanic community.
Thus, there is a glimmer of hope that something constructive may happen, and in all the back and forth, provisions favorable to the business community, which would make the visa system and the quota backlogs more manageable might result.
One thing we know for sure, it will be a bumpy journey.
