In May 2018, Canada, Mexico, and the United States continued to engage in intense and challenging negotiations over amendments to the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). Several deadlines for the negotiations are looming. The ability of the three countries to meet these deadlines will play a critical role in determining whether an agreement is reached.

In mid-May, United States Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer provided a status update on the NAFTA negotiations, stating that, "[f]or many weeks now, the United States, Mexico and Canada have engaged in intensive, continuous discussions to renegotiate NAFTA…" A few days afterwards, Canada’s Prime Minister, Justin Trudeau, stated that the countries were "close to a deal" and were "down to a point where this is a good deal on the table." Apparently in response, Ambassador Lighthizer said that the "NAFTA countries are nowhere near close to a deal."

The three sets of negotiators have been concerned about the timing for completion of NAFTA throughout the first half of this year. With upcoming elections this year in each NAFTA country, including Mexico's presidential election on July 1 and Congressional elections in the United States in November, the negotiators had hoped to have an completed agreement at this point. For example, Speaker Paul Ryan initially stated that a deal needed to be completed by May 17 if Congress hoped to approve the deal by the end of 2018. He has, however, stated since that time that there is some "wiggle room" with the deadline. In May, a number of Republican Senators sent President Trump a letter encouraging the Administration to work with members of Congress from both parties to ensure that a final NAFTA agreement has the support needed to be passed by Congress.

The negotiations could also be significantly affected by the June 1 expiration of Canada's and Mexico's temporary exemption from the Trump Administration's Section 232 tariffs on steel and aluminum. Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross stated this week that Canada and Mexico’s exemptions from the tariffs were linked to the progress of the NAFTA negotiations, but the negotiations were "taking longer than we hoped." On May 31, 2018, President Trump announced that the temporary exemption of Canada and Mexico from these tariffs would expire and that the two countries would be subject to the tariffs effective June 1, 2018.

As a result, there is still doubt that the three countries will reach a new deal at all. In late May, Prime Minister Trudeau said that "[n]o NAFTA is better than a bad deal," while President Trump has threatened to withdraw the United States from the agreement. The coming weeks will provide a better glimpse of what lies in store for NAFTA.