THE DEMOCRATS
Hillary Clinton has withstood “Emailgate” and the Democratic Party has in turn coalesced around her campaign. Senator Bernie Sanders’ more than credible challenge will fall short but has met an important strategic goal—pushing Mrs. Clinton further to the “progressive left”. Nevertheless, a return to more moderate rhetoric (and policy positions) is likely come the fall campaign.
THE REPUBLICANS
Trump: Base anger at the GOP congressional majority explains much of his popularity. Still, he has fallen to second in Iowa and 2/3 of New Hampshire primary voters remain undecided. Underachieving election results will test “The Donald” and provide insight into his willingness to compete when things get difficult.
Cruz: The Texas senator has benefitted from Dr. Carson’s rapid decline in the polls. He possesses the “right” social views for Iowa; not so much New Hampshire. Recent uptick in support (and contributions) guarantees he will be around well into the spring.
Rubio: In most everyone’s “top three”. Major challenge is to hang around until Florida and then take down his one-time mentor, Jeb Bush.
Bush: See above. The former governor has the money to continue even if he underperforms in New Hampshire and South Carolina but must win or place in Florida.
Carson: Continues to raise impressive money but has been falling in national polls for weeks. A strong showing in Iowa could stem the tide. Still, last week’s staff shake-up continues a long string of negative stories.
Christie: Multitude of engagements in New Hampshire is paying off. A decent finish in NH (top four) will help in South Carolina. In survival mode but campaigning hard in order to outperform Kasich and Rubio.
Kasich: See above. Initial high expectations in New Hampshire have been dampened by unimpressive poll results. Must finish in top four and be competitive against Christie and Rubio.
Fiorina: Has not capitalized on series of impressive debate performances. Working hard but not reflected in polls. Must surprise in either New Hampshire or South Carolina.
Huckabee / Santorum / Gilmore / Paul: Must pull off surprise in one of the primary states to survive. Note that Santorum and Huckabee have performed well in past Iowa caucuses.
