Super Models Are Looking Better Than Ever - What Does That Mean For Insureds?

by McCarter & English: Climate Change & Renewable Energy
Contact

A recent article in August’s Best’s Review, The Rise of the Super Models, by Kate Smith (not Kate Upton, sorry), caught our eye.  A lot is going on in the world of computer catastrophe modeling.  First, demand by insurers and reinsurers is up and modeling firms are “broadening the scope of risks and regions that they model, with RMS, AIR Worldwide and CoreLogic EQECAT all set to release new models this year.”  Among other things, all of the top 3 modeling firms are releasing U.S. inland flood models.  This blog has been hard on FEMA and the Corps of Engineers, criticizing the backward-looking nature of flood plain mapping.  It looks like the tools to remedy that deficiency will soon be at hand.

Second, modeling firms are shifting from open models to open platforms, which “offer more choice by providing access to models created by third-party suppliers.”  According to Ms. Smith, a catalyst for this change is Oasis Loss Modeling Framework, Ltd., an insurance industry-founded and -funded organization.  According to Oasis’s webpage, “Barriers to entry have restricted the ability of the insurance community to exploit large elements of available research in hazards and vulnerability.”  Such barriers include costs and knowledgeable personnel.  The goal then was to create an “open marketplace for models and data leading to much wider access to understandable tools for catastrophe risk assessment.”  Open platforms (think Linux) can have great benefits; nevertheless, some are skeptical of Oasis’s practicality in that it is not available for off-the-shelf use, is optimized for an expensive IBM platform, and runs slowly on other platforms, among other things.  

The implications for policyholders of all this modeling are three-fold:  first, rates; second, policyholders’ own business decisions; and third, others' views of those business decisions.

As insurers better understand the risks associated with particular locations their rates will be adjusted accordingly. This can be a good thing if insurers determine they have overestimated the risk, or if other insurers jump into that market and drive prices lower. But it will be a bad thing if the risk was underestimated and prices rise, or insurers flee a particular market as has regularly happened in Florida and other states.  Indeed, at least one state has seen high court approval of the use of models to limit insurance offerings in high risk areas.

Modeling can also be a boon to business planning. What does the future likely hold for a particular location? Will water supplies hold up?  Is the flood map reliable or is it outdated?  Is the company compounding its exposure by yet another franchise or mall development in a particular region?  There is no reason that modeling expertise need be restricted to insurance and reinsurance companies.  Other businesses can benefit.  However, as pointed out in Super Models, “Models are not a perfect science; there are subjective opinions involved.”  Accordingly, businesses should be cautious.

And what if a business does not bring modeling into its business planning? It is likely that if things go awry and the unpleasantness is substantial and can be attributed to an inadequate forecast, an injured party will assert the failure to model the future was negligent.  A case in point is In re PXRE Group, Ltd., Sec. Litig., 600 F. Supp. 2d 510 (S.D.N.Y. 2009), aff’d, 357 Fed. Appx. 393 (2d Cir. 2009), where a reinsurance company found its failure to rely on a particular model was the gravamen of a class action plaintiff’s security fraud suit.  PXRE was a thriving reinsurance company, whose business was conditioned on maintaining an A- rating.  Unfortunately, Hurricanes Katrina, and then Rita, and then Wilma, devastated certain portions of the Gulf Coast to its reinsureds’ detriment.  PXRE stepped in and paid on its reinsurance contracts but the losses kept increasing.  It relied on models to reassure the investment community that it remained financially sound in order to raise money.  The models it relied on, however, turned out to be inaccurate, and ultimately PXRE's rating crumbled and it succumbed to the unprecedented losses.  The class action ensued.

Plaintiff claimed, among other things, that PXRE should have relied on a higher estimated loss ($40-60 billion by RMS) rather than valuations of $30-40 billion touted by PXRE’s own models as well as by ISO and Air Worldwide.  The district court opinion gives a lengthy dissertation on the standards to be applied in a securities fraud case on a motion to dismiss and concluded that PXRE was not reckless in its reliance.  More germane to the issue here, is that PXRE was able to defend itself because it had relied on models. 

Granted, modeling was part of PXRE’s business and, no doubt, a lack of modeling would have been reckless.  But, is a prudent non-insurance business going to eschew modeling on the theory that no one else in its industry relies on them.  If models are becoming more widely available, as suggested by Super Models, the path of the prudent business is, at the very least, to consider whether modeling has something to offer.

DISCLAIMER: Because of the generality of this update, the information provided herein may not be applicable in all situations and should not be acted upon without specific legal advice based on particular situations.

© McCarter & English: Climate Change & Renewable Energy | Attorney Advertising

Written by:

McCarter & English: Climate Change & Renewable Energy
Contact
more
less

McCarter & English: Climate Change & Renewable Energy on:

Readers' Choice 2017
Reporters on Deadline

"My best business intelligence, in one easy email…"

Your first step to building a free, personalized, morning email brief covering pertinent authors and topics on JD Supra:
Sign up using*

Already signed up? Log in here

*By using the service, you signify your acceptance of JD Supra's Privacy Policy.
Privacy Policy (Updated: October 8, 2015):
hide

JD Supra provides users with access to its legal industry publishing services (the "Service") through its website (the "Website") as well as through other sources. Our policies with regard to data collection and use of personal information of users of the Service, regardless of the manner in which users access the Service, and visitors to the Website are set forth in this statement ("Policy"). By using the Service, you signify your acceptance of this Policy.

Information Collection and Use by JD Supra

JD Supra collects users' names, companies, titles, e-mail address and industry. JD Supra also tracks the pages that users visit, logs IP addresses and aggregates non-personally identifiable user data and browser type. This data is gathered using cookies and other technologies.

The information and data collected is used to authenticate users and to send notifications relating to the Service, including email alerts to which users have subscribed; to manage the Service and Website, to improve the Service and to customize the user's experience. This information is also provided to the authors of the content to give them insight into their readership and help them to improve their content, so that it is most useful for our users.

JD Supra does not sell, rent or otherwise provide your details to third parties, other than to the authors of the content on JD Supra.

If you prefer not to enable cookies, you may change your browser settings to disable cookies; however, please note that rejecting cookies while visiting the Website may result in certain parts of the Website not operating correctly or as efficiently as if cookies were allowed.

Email Choice/Opt-out

Users who opt in to receive emails may choose to no longer receive e-mail updates and newsletters by selecting the "opt-out of future email" option in the email they receive from JD Supra or in their JD Supra account management screen.

Security

JD Supra takes reasonable precautions to insure that user information is kept private. We restrict access to user information to those individuals who reasonably need access to perform their job functions, such as our third party email service, customer service personnel and technical staff. However, please note that no method of transmitting or storing data is completely secure and we cannot guarantee the security of user information. Unauthorized entry or use, hardware or software failure, and other factors may compromise the security of user information at any time.

If you have reason to believe that your interaction with us is no longer secure, you must immediately notify us of the problem by contacting us at info@jdsupra.com. In the unlikely event that we believe that the security of your user information in our possession or control may have been compromised, we may seek to notify you of that development and, if so, will endeavor to do so as promptly as practicable under the circumstances.

Sharing and Disclosure of Information JD Supra Collects

Except as otherwise described in this privacy statement, JD Supra will not disclose personal information to any third party unless we believe that disclosure is necessary to: (1) comply with applicable laws; (2) respond to governmental inquiries or requests; (3) comply with valid legal process; (4) protect the rights, privacy, safety or property of JD Supra, users of the Service, Website visitors or the public; (5) permit us to pursue available remedies or limit the damages that we may sustain; and (6) enforce our Terms & Conditions of Use.

In the event there is a change in the corporate structure of JD Supra such as, but not limited to, merger, consolidation, sale, liquidation or transfer of substantial assets, JD Supra may, in its sole discretion, transfer, sell or assign information collected on and through the Service to one or more affiliated or unaffiliated third parties.

Links to Other Websites

This Website and the Service may contain links to other websites. The operator of such other websites may collect information about you, including through cookies or other technologies. If you are using the Service through the Website and link to another site, you will leave the Website and this Policy will not apply to your use of and activity on those other sites. We encourage you to read the legal notices posted on those sites, including their privacy policies. We shall have no responsibility or liability for your visitation to, and the data collection and use practices of, such other sites. This Policy applies solely to the information collected in connection with your use of this Website and does not apply to any practices conducted offline or in connection with any other websites.

Changes in Our Privacy Policy

We reserve the right to change this Policy at any time. Please refer to the date at the top of this page to determine when this Policy was last revised. Any changes to our privacy policy will become effective upon posting of the revised policy on the Website. By continuing to use the Service or Website following such changes, you will be deemed to have agreed to such changes. If you do not agree with the terms of this Policy, as it may be amended from time to time, in whole or part, please do not continue using the Service or the Website.

Contacting JD Supra

If you have any questions about this privacy statement, the practices of this site, your dealings with this Web site, or if you would like to change any of the information you have provided to us, please contact us at: info@jdsupra.com.

- hide
*With LinkedIn, you don't need to create a separate login to manage your free JD Supra account, and we can make suggestions based on your needs and interests. We will not post anything on LinkedIn in your name. Or, sign up using your email address.
Feedback? Tell us what you think of the new jdsupra.com!