As we have previously reported, on September 30, 2018, Canada, Mexico, and the United States reached an agreement to replace the North American Free Trade Agreement (“NAFTA”). Although the three countries are expected to sign the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (“USMCA”) on November 30, 2018, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) said that he does not expect the Senate to vote on the USMCA until 2019.

On August 31, 2018, after the President notified Congress of his intent to sign the agreement in 90 days, U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer formally asked the U.S. International Trade Commission (“Commission”) to prepare a report discussing the likely impact of the agreement “on the United States economy as a whole and on specific industry sectors and interests of U.S. consumers.” As a result, the Commission has instituted its investigation on the impact of the agreement on the U.S. economy. The Commission must complete the report no more than 105 days after the President signs the USCMA. If the President were to sign the agreement on November 30, as expected, the ITC will need to complete its investigation by March 15, 2019. The ITC is scheduled to hold a public hearing in the investigation on November 15, 2018 and will accept written comments from the public until December 20.

Given this timeline, and the need for Congress to debate the USMCA, Senate Majority Leader McConnell stated that the agreement will not come up for a vote this year. Senator McConnell said that the USMCA will be a “next-year issue” because “the process we have to go through doesn’t allow {it} to come up before the end of this year{.}” He added that his “trade advisers say you can’t possibly do it under the various steps that we have to go through” but noted that “{t}here’s no question this will be on the top of the agenda” in 2019.

Several high-ranking Republican senators, including Senate Finance Committee Chairman Orrin Hatch (R-UT) and Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Chuck Grassley (R-IA), had hoped that the agreement would be taken up in 2018, given that the upcoming midterm elections could result in the Democrats regaining control of the House of Representatives. As we reported previously, “the political landscape in the U.S. Congress may change significantly after the midterm elections. Democratic control of either chamber could increase the time under which the Agreement is considered in Congress, which would further delay the USMCA from coming into force.”