Third-quarter headlines in the insurance market are typically dominated by the Atlantic hurricane season. This year’s hurricane season has been relatively benign—instead, the focus has been on the casualty market. Casualty rate increases had started to level off in late 2022, but they ticked up again in Q2 2023, particularly in auto and excess casualty, and this trend continued into Q3. Many insurers specifically mentioned casualty as an area that requires continued attention in Q3 earnings calls—the main culprit they cite for continued rate increases is social inflation. Although the Atlantic hurricane season was mild, the property rate increases we’ve seen in the first half of the year continued into Q3 and are expected to continue into 2024. The mild hurricane season isn’t helping the property market because losses have been driven by secondary perils, which include hail, tornados, and severe wind.
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