On March 16, the Trump Administration released "America First: A Budget Blueprint to Make America Great Again." The so-called "skinny budget," which includes proposed top-line spending numbers for the federal government, sets down the President's policy priorities for the upcoming FY18 budget and appropriations negotiations. The proposal, which deals solely with the discretionary side of the federal budget, notably includes a $54 billion increase in defense spending, $2.6 billion for the border wall and a $1.4 billion increase for charter schools, private schools and other school-choice initiatives. In order to pay for those increases, the proposal includes significant cuts to a number of departments, including a 31 percent cut for the Environmental Protection Agency, a 29 percent cut for the State Department, 21 percent cuts for the Agriculture and Labor Departments, and an 18 percent cut for the Department of Health and Human Services, among others.

Congressional Republicans have expressed skepticism over the likelihood that the proposal will form an outline for congressional proposals yet to come. Representative Hal Rogers (R-KY), former chair of the House Appropriations Committee, summed up the feelings of many House Republicans, saying in a statement, "While we have a responsibility to reduce our federal deficit, I am disappointed that many of the reductions and eliminations proposed in the President's skinny budget are draconian, careless and counterproductive … We will certainly review this budget proposal, but Congress ultimately has the power of the purse."

Another wrinkle in the debate over the FY18 budget is congressional Republicans' stated preference to utilize the budgeting process known as "reconciliation" to pass a tax reform/tax cut proposal. By adopting tax reform/tax cuts through reconciliation, the measure will be able to advance through the Senate with 51 votes, eliminating the threat of a filibuster from Senate Democrats. However, the failure of the House to adopt a reconciliation measure to repeal the ACA under the FY17 budget resolution may lead to changes in the previously announced plan.

Takeaway: The debate over the FY18 budget is only beginning, and while President Trump's so-called "skinny budget" has already been submitted to Congress, it is likely to be significantly altered before any resolution moves forward, and of course the full Trump Administration budget will not be delivered until sometime in May. Throw into the mix the ongoing FY17 appropriations process, the continuing debate over repeal of the ACA and the conversation on tax reform/tax cuts, and you have the makings of an unpredictable FY18 budget season.