It is widely rumored that the Marcellus Shale Play can support a total of 3 ethane crackers.

The math goes like this:

• By 2026-2030, an additional 267,000 barrels per day (b/d) of ethane could be available for use as a petrochemical feedstock from the Marcellus Shale Play;
• It is estimated that a world class cracker like Shell’s requires 90,000 b/d of ethane in order to produce the projected 1.5 million metric ton per year of ethylene;
• Thus, an additional 267,000 b/d of ethane is enough feedstock to support three ethane crackers each drawing 90,000 b/d of feedstock from the Marcellus Shale.

These figures and estimates derive from a March 2017 report created by HIS Markit, entitled “Prospects to Enhance Pennsylvania’s Opportunities in Petrochemical Manufacturing.”

Assuming the above, it is true then the Marcellus natural gas fields can support a total of three crackers. Without doubt, the economic impact of hosting three crackers in our Region will have an enormous economic impact and remake Southwestern Pennsylvania into the second largest petrochemical center in the nation, trailing only the Texas-Louisiana Gulf Coast. If this indeed comes to pass, it will herald a new renaissance in 21st century manufacturing, which will permanently change the face of Southwestern Pennsylvania.

However, there is no guarantee these additional crackers will come to fruition. The  Shell cracker is only one which today is a reality. For 2  additional crackers to open here depends upon whether our region can quickly build out the physical infrastructure needed to support additional crackers (i.e., large available contiguous real estate tracts, transmission pipelines, fractionation plants, fabrication facilities, rail lines, barge access, craft labor of all sorts, etc.)  If this infrastructure is not in place in short order, Marcellus gas will continue to flow out of our region, depriving us of the enormous economic benefits from local consumption of this natural resource. As we sit here today, Marcellus gas, rich in ethane, is being exported and will continue to be shipped to refineries in the Gulf Coast, Canada and Europe.

So the race is on – can we build this infrastructure fast enough to attract at least 2 more crackers and lock in the economic benefits before Marcellus producers exhaust this natural resource via long term supply contracts and export it elsewhere?

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