“None,” is our best guess, practically speaking. Congress passed much of what became the consolidated Affordable Case Act under “budget reconciliation” rules, which preclude a filibuster and enable a bill to pass the Senate with a simple majority vote. Tax and spending legislation may be passed and repealed that way. H.R. 3762, now on the House calendar for a floor vote, aims to do just that – erasing, among other things, ACA provisions on automatic enrollment, the individual mandate, the employer mandate, the medical device tax, the Cadillac plan tax, and the Independent Payment Advisory Board. The House could vote as soon as this week, with the Senate approving just days later, followed by the President’s veto. Then what?

Veto override requires two-thirds votes of the House and Senate – i.e., bi-partisan cooperation. In our opinion, large majorities might vote to repeal automatic enrollment, the Cadillac plan tax and the IPAB, but not after a Presidential veto of a broader, partisan bill passed by budget reconciliation. So, we consider H.R. 3762 much ado about not much.