Zillow Study of First Quarter 2011: Real Estate Values Fall - What Does It Mean to Florida Real Estate?


The first quarter of 2011 research has been tallied, and real estate studies are being released to let us all know just where we stand nationally - and especially here in the Florida real estate market.

In particular, the May 2011 findings of Seattle-based Zillow, Inc. are making national news, and the results are grim. Zillow operates a real estate research web site (Zillow.com) which is well respected in the industry, and the latest Zillow market findings are being analyzed this week. It's not looking good.

Zillow's findings can be read in their entirety at the Zillow blog in a post entitled "No Respite From Housing Recession in First Quarter," written by Stan Humphries. According to Zillow:

Because of the strong depreciation in the first quarter, we’ve revised our forecast for the total home value decline nationally in 2011 to 7-9 percent (previously 5-7 percent) and our forecast of the bottom from late 2011 to 2012 at the earliest. As always, our expectation post-bottom (where we define the bottom as the end of consistent monthly depreciation) is for a long period of below-normal real estate appreciation during which time we work out the remaining overhang of excess housing supply.

Other industry leaders are in tandem with Zillow's findings. Morgan Stanley and RealtyTrac Inc., both forecast a dismal 2011 - a year that may be the worst yet for Florida real estate.

The Miami Herald, in covering the Zillow study, reports that while home sales here in Florida are doing much better than the national average, the bad news for South Florida, in particular, is that fair market value of South Florida homes are still in trouble and getting worse: they continue to drop. In fact, the Herald reports that South Florida values have dropped to the prices last seen in 2002 -- and that homes in places like Miami-Dade and Broward are worth less than half (55.4%) what they went for five years ago (2006).

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