This week, the AHCA was the subject of frenzied negotiations between House leadership (and President Trump), the conservative House Freedom Caucus and the moderate "Tuesday Group." The House Freedom Caucus pushed to lower the financial cost of the bill; provide additional flexibility for insurance companies through the elimination of the ACA's 10 essential health benefits; an earlier end to the Medicaid expansion (initially set for 2019); an option for states to choose a Medicaid block grant (rather than the AHCA's proposed per capita cap); and an acceleration of the expiration of the ACA's tax credits, among others. Moderate House Republicans, who raised concerns regarding the Medicaid rollback, also pushed for increased subsidies for older Americans to purchase health care and a delay in the repeal of the Medicare tax on wealthy Americans, among other issues of concern. In addition, the AHCA included state-specific incentives aimed at garnering support from Republican members from upstate New York and Illinois.

Key elements of the AHCA were:

If the bill had passed the House, it would have faced significant challenges in the Senate. A number of moderate and more conservative Senate Republicans expressed concerns with the legislation, echoing the dynamic seen in the House. The bill would also have faced a procedural challenge in the Senate, where the Senate Parliamentarian would have had to rule on whether the bill produced by the House was eligible for consideration under the expedited reconciliation procedures or if it would need to be amended before moving forward. In particular, the removal of the ACA's 10 essential health benefits required by all insurance plans was seen as a challenging inclusion. Initially, House Republican leadership elected not to include this in the legislation for fear that it would fall victim to the "Byrd Rule" that limits the scope of legislation passed through reconciliation. However, the provision was later added after the House Freedom Caucus insisted on its inclusion in exchange for their support, and some Senate Republicans intimated that the Parliamentarian might in fact agree to the measure's inclusion.

What happens next remains to be seen. During his comments after the bill's withdrawal, Speaker Ryan said, "Obamacare is the law of the land…We're going to be living with Obamacare for the foreseeable future." He pointedly refused to say whether or when he would move forward with another attempt at a full repeal and replacement. President Trump laid blame for the bill's failure on Democrats who refused to vote for the measure saying, "I think the losers are Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer because now they own Obamacare." With the failure of the AHCA, the focus of the health care debate will now shift to Tom Price, the Secretary of Health and Human Services, and the regulatory efforts the Trump Administration pushes forward designed to stabilize the individual marketplace (see "HHS Makes Its First Move to Stabilize the Individual Health Insurance Marketplace" for our analysis of the proposed changes). Additionally, the Trump Administration will likely seek ways to encourage states to test out Medicaid strategies. However, it remains unknown whether congressional Republicans and the White House will push forward with another repeal package or if they will instead move to make changes to the ACA through regular order, which would require a veto-proof bipartisan majority of 60 votes in the Senate. President Trump seemed to indicate he was not interested in pushing forward with another repeal measure in the near future, saying after the bill's withdrawal "As you know, I've been saying for years that the best thing is to let Obamacare explode and then go make a deal with the Democrats and have one unified deal. And they will come to us, we won't have to come to them…After Obamacare explodes."

We will continue to monitor and report on proposed changes to the country's health care system as the debate progresses.