2022 Midterms: Top 10 States to Watch - June 2022

The 2022 midterm elections kicked off with primaries in Texas on March 1, 2022. Additional high-profile primary elections will be held throughout the summer in Governor and Senate races in Georgia, Pennsylvania, Arizona, North Carolina and beyond. Those contests will tee up Election Day on November 8, when control of the U.S. House and Senate will be up for grabs as well as several high-profile gubernatorial races in key battleground states.

Ten states in particular will play a significant role in deciding the balance of the U.S. House and Senate and shaping the map of governorships going forward.

  • Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Nevada and Pennsylvania are home to targeted U.S. Senate and House and Governors races.
  • Kansas has targeted House and Governors races.
  • New Hampshire, Ohio and Wisconsin each have targeted Senate and Governors races.
  • In North Carolina, there will be a high-profile, open seat election for Senate as well as targeted House races.

McGuireWoods Consulting is carefully watching the primary election results in these 10 states and will capture the significance of the results as the elections unfold on our website and social media channels.

  • Georgia
  • North Carolina
  • Pennsylvania
  • Ohio

Georgia Midterm Results Update

On May 24, 2022, Georgia voters went to the polls to cast their votes for the nominees they want to see represent their party in the November’s general election. Voter turnout was significantly higher among both parties compared to the previous midterm elections in 2018.

The Republican Gubernatorial Primary resulted in a landslide victory for incumbent Brian Kemp despite former President Donald Trump endorsing his challenger, former Senator David Purdue. Gov. Kemp garnered 73.7% of the Republican vote. His victory sets up a rematch of the highly contested 2018 race against Stacey Abrams, who ran unopposed on the Democratic side.

In the race for U.S. Senate, Herschel Walker easily secured the Republican nomination over a field of other GOP candidates, including state Agriculture Commissioner Gary Black. Walker was endorsed by former President Donald Trump shortly after announcing his campaign. This sets up a clash with freshman Senator Raphael Warnock, who cruised to victory in his Democratic primary. This race is poised to be crucial in deciding Senate control.

The redistricting of Congresswoman Lucy McBath’s district prompted her to run in the neighboring 7th congressional district against Democratic colleague Carolyn Bourdeaux. McBath won the Democratic primary contest with 64% of the vote. She will now face either Michael Corbin or Mark Gonsalves in November’s general election.

In the 6th district, the election for an open seat in Congress resulted in a runoff on the Republican side. Rich McCormick and Jake Evans, whom Trump endorsed, advanced to a runoff election on June 21. The winner will take on Democrat Bob Christian in November. The winner of the Republican primary will likely be the next Congressman from the 6th District.

North Carolina Midterm Results Update

North Carolina recently held its primary elections for several key midterm races that are poised to decide the make-up of both the U.S. House and Senate. The battleground state had every House seat up for re-election and additionally one of its Senate seats. The redrawing of North Carolina’s congressional districts in 2022 resulted in the addition of a 14th seat, with about half leaning towards each party and one district being deemed as highly competitive. Voters went to the polls to nominate their respective candidates in a midterm race that is poised to decide the control of the Senate. On the republican side, Trump-endorsed Ted Budd emerged as the winner with 59%. The current Congressman defeated challenges from former Governor Pat McCrory and former Congressman Mark Walker. The Democratic side featured former North Carolina Chief Supreme Court Justice Cheri Beasley easily cruising to the party’s nomination with 81% of the vote.

The race in North Carolina’s 11th featured Freshman representative Madison Cawthorn vying for another term in Congress. Cawthorn, known for his pro-Trump policies was defeated narrowly by three-term state senator Chuck Edwards by a margin of 1.5%. Edwards had gained the endorsements of the state GOP and Senator Thom Tills amid several controversies that plagued the campaign of Cawthorn. Edwards should win the general election easily as the seat is safely Republican. Another notable race took place in the 13th district where candidates were vying for the open seat left by Republican senate nominee Ted Budd. Bo Hines, a 26-year-old endorsed by former President Trump won the Republican nomination. Democrat Wiley Nickel secured the nomination for his party with over 50% of the vote in the 13th district, which is situated outside of Raleigh. This race is slated to be one of the most highly contested Congressional races in the country. In North Carolina’s 4th district, state Senator Valerie Foushee defeated Nida Allam, who was endorsed by Senator Elizabeth Warren. Foushee will face Courtney Gels in the heavily Democratic leaning district.

All eyes move to November’s general election, which are certain to be crucial in determining party control in Congress and the Senate.

Pennsylvania Midterm Results Update

On May 17, 2022, the Pennsylvania voters took their opinions to the polls for key primary races before the November election comes up. Democratic Senate nominee is current Lieutenant Governor John Fetterman who beat out Congressman Conor Lamb. Congressman Conor Lamb was the leading candidate with scores of Democratic endorsements, including mayors of key cities, and had won Trump territory, but fell in the primaries to the unconventional politician Fetterman in every county. The Republican senate primary race is headed for a recount between the TV personality Mehmet Oz, who has Trump’s endorsement, and CEO Dave McCormick. Despite the recount, Oz has claimed himself the presumptive nominee. McCormick is also suing over “undated” ballots which could head to the Supreme Court and change the gap between the two candidates. The governor’s race on the Democratic side was an unopposed race for State Attorney General Josh Shapiro. Shapiro will face Doug Mastriano, the Republican primary winner who secured a last-minute endorsement from former President Trump and gained a large amount of support following his campaign to overturn the 2020 presidential election. Mastriano took the majority of the state except the northeast region surrounding Scranton which went to Lou Barletta.

State Representative of Alleghany County Austin Davis won the Democratic primary for Lieutenant Governor leading in all counties. Davis will face State Representative of Alleghany County Carrie Lewis DelRosso who came out ahead of the nine candidate Republican race. The redistricting of Pennsylvania has resulted in 17 seats of which 15 running are incumbents. The 12th House District will be Republican Michael Doyle against Democrat Summer Lee who prevailed in a large Democratic field hoping to take the retiring Rep. Mike Doyle’s seat. After Rep. Conor Lamb’s choice to run for Senate, both parties held contested primary elections where Democrat Chris Deluzio and Republican Jeremey Shaffer prevailed to race in November.

Ohio Midterm Results Update

Results in Ohio provide an interesting window into the minds of voters going into the midterm elections. The most marquee and profiled race was the Republican primary for U.S. Senate where former author and venture capitalist J.D. Vance was elected as the Republican nominee. Vance won a plurality of voters with strongholds in the rural and suburban parts of the state. Notably, he received the backing of former President Donald Trump and was supported by a large outside effort financed by Peter Thiel. Both Trump and the financial backing of Theil are factors to watch going forward in Republican primaries. Gov. Mike DeWine held off interparty challenges from his right flank.

The Democratic side saw wins for the establishment wing of the party as populist candidate Congressman Tim Ryan easily won the Democratic Senate primary. He won every county in Ohio and held off challenges from the more progressive wings. In the gubernatorial race, former Dayton Mayor Nan Whaley received from the nod from Ohio Democrats, dominating her opponent in every area of the state except the Cincinnati suburbs and the counties surrounding Toledo. Also of note was the win by Congresswoman Shontel Brown over former Bernie Sanders presidential campaign Chair Nina Turner. Establishment Democrats flooded the zone to support the sitting Congresswoman and ensure that Rep. Brown would have the resources to win.

The results point to a general election in Ohio that will be heavily contested and centered on populist rhetoric as well as the policies of the Trump and Biden Administrations.

DISCLAIMER: Because of the generality of this update, the information provided herein may not be applicable in all situations and should not be acted upon without specific legal advice based on particular situations.

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