On Sept. 30, the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) officially expired, marking the end of 25 years of tariff-free treatment for U.S. imports of goods sourced from sub-Saharan African countries. Members tried to renew the trade preference program during the 118th Congress, with the House Ways and Means Committee and the Senate Finance Committee holding hearings and several members introducing legislation aimed at reauthorizing the program. Congress also attempted to include a clean 16-year reauthorization in the Fiscal Year 2025 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) during the conferencing process, but due to the germaneness standard set for the NDAA, the clean reauthorization of AGOA was not included in the final version of the bill.
Since the start of the Trump administration, African countries, key stakeholders and the private sector have pushed for AGOA reauthorization before its expiration this year. Many U.S. businesses and African nations are highly supportive of the benefits that AGOA provided and seek to include new industries, especially critical minerals, in the reauthorization process. Congress was unable to reauthorize AGOA before its expiration due to other legislative priorities.
What Happens After AGOA’s Expiration
In 2023, U.S. imports under AGOA totaled nearly $10 billion, with the trade preference program acting as a cornerstone of U.S.-African relations for multiple sub-Saharan African countries. President Trump’s tariff policies impacted AGOA-beneficiary countries and effectively negated the trade benefits provided under AGOA. Sub-Saharan African countries were hit with fairly high tariff rates, with Lesotho and South Africa experiencing some of the largest rates. Lesotho was once a model for U.S. investment under AGOA, but due to the tariffs saw mass layoffs and factory closures. We anticipate the expiration of AGOA will facilitate job losses and factory closures in other sub-Saharan African countries.
South Africa saw a major shift in its relationship with the United States after the start of the Trump administration. President Trump and members of his administration criticized certain South African policies and committed to not attending at the highest levels the November G20 Summit in South Africa. On July 7, President Trump announced a 30% tariff on any and all South African products sent to the United States. The tense relationship also puts South Africa’s membership within AGOA at risk, especially during future reauthorization discussions. Last year, a provision was included in the FY25 NDAA to conduct a full review of the bilateral relationship between the United States and South Africa, which could be used as evidence to remove South Africa from the program in any future authorization attempt or eligibility meeting.
Now that AGOA has expired, sub-Saharan Africa will no longer experience the trade benefits available under the trade preference program. Textile industry representatives in Kenya have expressed concern that once they lose access to AGOA, they will struggle to compete against Asian countries. Nigeria and Lesotho are expected to experience notable adverse effects of AGOA’s expiration, and we anticipate a significant drop in exports from Madagascar, Mauritius, Kenya, Botswana and South Africa.
The International Trade Centre in Geneva anticipates that there will likely be a “major drop” in apparel and tuna exports from countries including Kenya, Tanzania, Cape Verde, Lesotho and Eswatini. South Africa is also anticipated to experience a 17% decline in shipments, with losses primarily in metals, vehicles and chemicals.
Angola and Senegal, however, are expected to benefit due to their dominance in the oil and critical minerals sectors, respectively.
Despite the impact of shipments to the United States, we anticipate that AGOA’s expiration will also have indirect effects on weakened supply chains, reduced foreign investment, a loss of capacity building and a rise in poverty across the continent.
The loss of AGOA trade benefits undermines the United States’ economic influence across Africa, especially during the Trump administration’s new foreign policy model, “trade not aid.” We expect it would force African countries to look for new partnerships with U.S. allies or adversaries to recover lost export income.
China has already positioned itself as an alternative partner to Africa, especially as foreign aid programs to Africa were paused earlier this year. We anticipate that China will utilize the opportunity of AGOA’s expiration to deepen its involvement in Africa through the Belt and Road Initiative and present itself as a “reliable” partner to sub-Saharan Africa.
Trump Administration Reaction and Next Steps
The Trump administration and Congress are still supportive of the benefits provided under AGOA, despite the inability to reauthorize the trade preference program before Sept. 30. Senior Adviser to the President for Africa Massad Boulos said the Trump administration supports the objectives of the AGOA trade program, and an unnamed White House official recently discussed the potential for a one-year AGOA extension. U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) Jamieson Greer expressed his support for AGOA’s renewal but emphasized that it is a responsibility of Congress to introduce and pass the reauthorization.
In Congress, Senate Finance Committee Ranking Member Ron Wyden (D-OR) said he supports renewing AGOA, while House Ways and Means Subcommittee on Trade Chair Adrian Smith (R-NE) said he would continue to support pushing for AGOA renewal legislation. House Ways and Means Committee Ranking Member Richard Neal (D-MA), Trade Subcommittee Ranking Member Linda Sanchez (D-CA) and Oversight Subcommittee Ranking Member Terri Sewell (D-AL) called on Congress to renew the legislation, calling AGOA “the centerpiece of U.S. trade relations” and its expiration “unacceptable” and “disastrous” for Africa. According to Lesotho Trade Minister Mokhethi Shelile, a joint panel between the House Ways and Means Committee and the Senate Finance Committee discussed plans to extend AGOA by the end of 2025.
Sen. John Kennedy (R-LA) introduced S.2958, a bill to extend the African Growth and Opportunity Act, to require a full review of the bilateral relationship between the United States and South Africa and for other purposes. Sen. Kennedy introduced the legislation on Sept. 30, but the text was not released before the government shutdown, so there is little information about the details of Sen. Kennedy’s extension. In 2023, Sen. Kennedy introduced the AGOA Extension Act of 2023 (S.2952), which would provide a “clean” 20-year extension of AGOA.
Due to the large support for AGOA in both Congress and the administration, we anticipate there will be more attempts to introduce reauthorization legislation. Past discussions of AGOA reauthorization sought to include benefits for more industries, particularly the critical minerals sector. African countries have previously lobbied the U.S. government to consider changing eligibility criteria, expanding the program to include more countries across the continent and providing additional support for awareness campaigns and utilization strategies. To read more on previous attempts to renew AGOA during the 118th Congress, please see here. To learn more about the perspective of African leaders and their desires for AGOA reauthorization following the 2024 AGOA Leaders Summit, please see here.
