The COVID-19 pandemic has triggered the most severe economic shock since the Great Depression. Despite massive intervention by central banks and governments, real output in the advanced economies likely fell in mere weeks by more than 10% from its level at the end of 2019.

A number of factors complicate a recovery from this unprecedented crisis: unknowns about the evolution of the pandemic; lack of global policy coordination; the uncertain behaviour of consumers as lockdowns are eased; the high debt levels of households, businesses and governments going into the crisis; the risk of permanent loss of capacity as the crisis endures; and the impact on investor confidence of uncertainty about the post-COVID-19 world.