Volume 9, Issue 9
● Welcome
Welcome to our ninth issue of Currents 2025.
Energy and Mineral Foundation Fall Symposium
The EMLF hosted its Fall Symposium on October 7-9 in Lexington, Kentucky. Our own Matt Heiskell was on hand to discuss Legal Issues in Mineral Ownership. And, Jason Wandling presented a Regulatory and Permitting Update. Click here to learn more.
The Rise of Data Centers and Electricity Demands on Virginia, Ohio, and North Carolina
By Jason E. Wandling
Data centers have generated unprecedented controversy across the country over the past two years, but have attracted the most attention in Virginia, North Carolina, and Ohio. Each of those states is currently experiencing a strong surge in electricity demand driven by the expansion of data centers, which has caused consternation among existing power utility customers and their new neighbors. This piece examines the experiences of data centers in each of those states.
In Virginia, Dominion Energy projects about a 5 percent annual increase in peak power demand over the next 15 years, a fact which runs up hard against constraints established by the Virginia Clean Economy Act (VCEA), which requires Dominion to be carbon-free by 2045 and sets limits on building new fossil-fuel plants unless certain efficiency thresholds are met. Pursuant to the VCEA, utilities must also show that any fossil-fuel-based solution is more cost-effective than clean alternatives.
Dominion Energy’s proposal to construct a new, 944 MW natural gas “peaker” plant in Chesterfield County to meet demand has brought this issue to the forefront. Peaker plants are designed to run only during high-demand periods, and Dominion argues this plant is the best and necessary solution to avoid reliability issues.
Clean energy advocates and other stakeholders argue Dominion did not adequately consider cleaner alternatives such as battery storage, grid-enhancing technologies, virtual power plants, or demand flexibility and have challenged Dominion’s modeling, cost comparisons, and assumptions. These critics contend that the analyses are biased toward the outcome of building the gas plant.
Likewise, the Virginia State Corporation Commission’s (SCC) staff has raised doubts about whether the Chesterfield plant is indeed the best or only viable path forward. They noted that Dominion’s economic impact study didn’t show large benefits, pointed out gaps in reliability studies, and criticized Dominion for not having developed cleaner dispatchable options earlier. Ultimately, however, staff did not formally oppose the plant, suggesting that with existing demand growth, regulators may see few alternatives. Public comments and hearings are ongoing.
Tension is increasing between the need to meet reliability goals while achieving the VCEA’s decarbonization requirements. Moreover, ratepayers such as residential consumers and existing businesses and industry may end up bearing the costs of constructing electrical grid infrastructure necessary to support the continued growth of data centers in Virginia.
Those tensions have begun to express themselves in the run-up to the November 2025 Virginia elections because voters are increasingly concerned about rising electricity bills and the strain on the grid that is particularly driven by growth in AI and data centers. Residents and existing businesses and industries are worried not just about high utility rates, but also about whether local power transmission infrastructure can handle surging demand without failure.
As Axios reported, former state lawmaker and director of Virginia's Department of Energy Glenn Davis said, "This is the first time I've really seen energy as part of the conversation during election season.” The concerns have been so pronounced that Amazon Web Services withdrew a plan for a data center in Louisa County, specifically citing community opposition. For Virginians, the issue of data centers and the construction of power plants to support them will continue to loom large.
North Carolina faces the same debate. Data centers are multiplying in North Carolina, driven especially by demand for AI and cloud computing. The growth is creating large, new electricity loads that Duke Energy projects will require adding nearly 6 GW of capacity to meet, nearly double the 3.9 GW it predicted just last year. Like in Virginia, regulators and stakeholders are questioning how to meet that demand while maintaining the clean-energy and decarbonization goals of North Carolina House Bill 951. Duke Energy’s solution is to build a fleet of new gas power plants. Clean energy advocates argue for alternatives like solar and large battery storage. Many critics argue that the proposed data centers may not materialize. And just as in Virginia, a key issue is who will pay for improvements to the electrical grid.
The North Carolina Utilities Commission (prompted in part by filings from environmental nongovernmental organizations like The Southern Environmental Law Center) has begun to dig into questions of large-loads, how to plan for them, and what rules should govern them. Meanwhile, Amazon Web Services has slated a $10 billion, 800-acre campus east of Charlotte for construction, while both Apple and Microsoft have large data centers planned for the areas west of the city as part of a “data center corridor.”
Unsurprisingly, the same issues are being raised in Ohio, where the Public Utilities Commission of Ohio (PUCO) has approved a new tariff requested by AEP Ohio (the investor utility providing electric service in the greater Columbus area) that requires large data centers to pay differently for electricity. Several major tech/data center-industry players, including Amazon, Google, Meta, and Microsoft, alongside the Ohio Manufacturers Association, challenged the proposal, but PUCO denied their appeal.
According to the PUCO ruling, data centers will be charged a minimum of 85 percent of their projected usage, even if actual usage falls below that level. The plan includes a “load-ramp” requirement pursuant to which data centers must gradually come up to their full load, rather than immediate full demand. There is also an exit fee if a data center cancels its project or cannot meet its contractual obligations.
AEP Ohio argued that its system is under strain due to surging energy demand from data center projects. In central Ohio alone, AEP Ohio noted large signed capacity agreements to meet new data center load, plus many more proposed projects. The purpose is to ensure that the infrastructure and grid upgrades necessitated by new, large loads are paid for by the data center operators who create the demand, rather than being funded disproportionately by residential customers and existing businesses and industrial users.
Opponents, including The Data Center Coalition and some manufacturers, argue the new tariff is discriminatory and may overcharge data centers. They say the utility’s demand forecasts might be speculative or overstated. The Ohio Manufacturers’ Association has said it will appeal to the Supreme Court of Ohio, seeing PUCO’s decision as unfair to high-energy industrial users.
Some see a potential solution to at least some of these issues in microgrids. A microgrid is a small network of electricity users with a local source of supply that may be attached to a centralized national grid, but which is able to function independently. Microgrids are becoming more relevant and necessary, not just for data centers but broadly across commercial, industrial, mission-critical, and even community/residential sectors. For instance, West Virginia passed a bill during the 2025 legislative session that created a structure to allow the construction of industrial microgrids that may alleviate some of the pressures on the larger electrical grid. Microgrid legislation is sure to be a live issue in most state legislatures during the coming years.
While Virginia, North Carolina, and Ohio have been at the forefront on data center development issues, we are seeing data center development occurring around the country. Similarly, we are also seeing state regulators and legislators around the country grapple with how best to facilitate the growth of data centers and AI while also protecting existing customers. While there is currently no clear path forward, there is no doubt that these issues will continue to be top of mind.
Mountain Valley Pipeline Asks Intermediate Court of Appeals to Return Protest Lawsuit to Circuit Court
“The suit alleges that Martha Ann Zinn, the respondent in the first suit, attached herself to a piece of drilling equipment being used to construct the pipeline, and Mary Beth Naim, Judy Kay Smucker, and Jessica Grim blocked an access road.”
Why this is important: During the construction of the Mountain Valley Pipeline, protestors impeded drilling and blocked access to the construction area. In response, the article points out that Mountain Valley Pipeline filed two separate lawsuits against the protestors alleging trespass, tortious interference, civil conspiracy, and violations of the Critical Infrastructure Protection Act. The Circuit Court ultimately dismissed both cases, ruling that Mountain Valley Pipeline did not possess enforceable property rights under the easement granted for pipeline installation. Mountain Valley Pipeline appealed the decision to the West Virginia Intermediate Court of Appeals. Oral arguments were heard on September 16, 2025. The appeal raises a central legal question: whether an easement holder, right-of-way holder, or license holder has a legally protectable interest in the property they are authorized to use. --- Taiesha K. Morgan
“Starmer announced multibillion-pound link-up to build ‘mini-nukes’ likely to be signed during Trump visit.”
Why this is important: British Prime Minister Starmer recently announced a $100 billion partnership with the United States for five nuclear deals to build a fleet of Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) and Advanced Modular Reactors (AMRs) in the UK. While there have been encouraging agreements and developments toward additional SMR capacity in recent years that have not been realized, this new round of cooperation between the UK and the U.S., despite traditional obstacles, may signal a significant step in reversing that trend as these projects are actually starting to move forward. This, in turn, could portend similar positive nuclear development outside of the UK. --- Barry A. Naum
IAEA Again Raises Global Nuclear Power Projections
“Noting recent momentum behind nuclear power, the International Atomic Energy Agency has revised up its projections for the expansion of nuclear power, estimating that global nuclear operational capacity will more than double by 2050—reaching 2.6 times the 2024 level—with small modular reactors expected to play a pivotal role in this high-case scenario.”
Why this is important: The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has revised its nuclear power capacity projections and now reports an estimated increase in nuclear capacity by 2050 of well over 100 percent from 2024 levels. As stated by IAEA Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi, “Nuclear power is indispensable for achieving clean, reliable and sustainable energy for all.” Despite this truth, as of 2024, nuclear generation comprised only 8.7 percent of global electricity production. Therefore, if these high-end projections are accurate, such an increase in available nuclear capacity could provide a promising partial solution to the astronomical electricity demands expected in the near future as a result of data centers and other advanced technologies, coupled with the ongoing retirement of “fossil fuel” generation. Still, as considered and discussed by IAEA, a number of critical improvements in national policies, investment, and workforce development must occur in order to obtain the highest projections. --- Barry A. Naum
Natural Gas to Dominate U.S., China and India's Energy Mix By 2050
“The report says that scalability and commercial challenges are the biggest obstacles that will hinder a direct shift from coal to renewables, making natural gas a critical bridge in the global energy transition.”
Why this is important: S&P Global Commodity Insights predicts natural gas is the only fossil fuel likely to grow in the generation mix of the United States, China, and India by 2050. In the next 25 years, S&P Global sees renewables – solar and wind principally – only growing by 4 percent to 20 percent. Gas is the only fossil fuel expected to increase in all three of the world’s largest countries. Currently, coal-to-gas substitution has driven the energy transition in the U.S., Europe, and Southeast Asia. However, in the midst of these transitions, new reserves of fossil fuels are being confirmed. India still relies heavily on oil for its energy needs, and last year, four new basins predicted to have 22 billion barrels of recoverable crude oil were confirmed in the world’s second largest country. That amount is more oil than is left in the U.S. Permian Basin, which has produced 14 billion of its 34 billion barrels of recoverable oil. --- Mark E. Heath
Which Form of Energy is the Cheapest? CBS News Asked the Experts to Find Out.
“In the U.S., where energy policy has been shaped by politics for more than a century, the battle continues to play out at the highest levels of government.”
Why this is important: Per the article, CBS relied on the Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) in determining which electricity sources are most cost-effective. That’s fine as far as it goes, but it’s only half the story. A fair comparison arguably also considers the Levelized Avoided Cost of Energy (LACE), which measures the value of that energy source to the grid. It involves comparing the cost of the energy produced to the cost of the energy source it would replace, and takes into account factors like the inherent intermittency of wind and solar. If a project’s LACE exceeds its LCOE, it has value to the grid. In many cases, a power source might generate electricity at the lowest price per kilowatt, but be less valuable to the grid because its power isn’t available and can’t be dispatched when needed. --- David L. Yaussy
Morrisey Shares New Energy Plan for WV, Relying Heavily on Coal, Natural Gas to Grow Power Creation
“The plan — dubbed the ‘50 by 50’ generation plan by Morrisey — aims to see the state increase its power capacity from the current 15 gigawatt generating capacity to 50 gigawatts by 2050.”
Why this is important: As detailed in the article, West Virginia’s Governor has announced a plan to more than triple the state’s electric power production capability within the next 25 years, in part as an aspiration to address the regional and national need for more power to meet demand associated with data center development and other energy-intensive formats. As described in the article, this ambitious plan specifically targets development of more fossil-fuel based power plants in the state, but downplays the viability of renewable power development. What remains unclear is who would build these new plants and who will bear the cost. On its face, the plan does little for existing West Virginia power consumers who have faced significant price increases over the last 15 years, particularly existing manufacturing and industrial companies that have already invested millions of dollars in West Virginia. Uncertainty also exists with respect to the proposed timeline; major fossil-fuel power plant development takes several years, and the plan would seemingly require that well more than a dozen such plants be built and energized within a relatively short period. Notwithstanding those key concerns, the plan certainly engages West Virginia’s place as an energy state and net exporter of power. --- Derrick Price Williamson
Which Countries Buy the Most U.S. Coal?
“The U.S. exported 97.6M tonnes of coal in 2024, representing 25% of its domestic coal production.”
Why this is important: Almost 25 percent of the coal mined in the U.S. is now exported. Data from the U.S. Energy Information Agency shows that in 2024, the United States exported 97.6 metric tons of coal (108 million U.S. tons). Fifty-seven percent of all exports went to five countries: 1) India, 23 percent at 22.9 million tons; 2) China, 12 percent at 11.3 million tons; 3) Japan, 8 percent at 8.2 million tons; 4) Brazil, 7 percent at 7.6 million tons; and 5) the Netherlands, 7 percent at 7.6 million tons. Since 2017, as European consumption has declined, Asia has become the largest U.S. market. The closest export market is Canada, which imported 3.9 percent of U.S. coal exported, at 3.8 million tons. As U.S. coal-fired plants have closed, the share of exported coal has replaced U.S. consumption of steam coal. --- Mark E. Heath
China Keeps Tight Grip on Rare Earths, Costing at Least One Company ‘Millions of Euros’
“The chamber also called on China to address several pain points for businesses as the country prepares its next five-year plan.”
Why this is important: The article reflects that amid ongoing trade tensions between China and several major economies, China has begun limiting foreign access to rare earth elements that are vital for technologies such as electric vehicles, semiconductors, medical imaging, and advanced defense systems. This shift coincides with global policy discussions addressing concerns about the environmental and economic impacts of overproduction in rare earth mining. According to the U.S. Geological Survey, China accounted for over 69 percent of global rare earth element mine production in 2024 and holds nearly half of the world’s known reserves. Recent Chinese export restrictions include the issuance of single-use export licenses and requirements that buyers certify the materials will not be used for military purposes.
The article points out that while some companies, such as Volkswagen, report stable supply chains, others claim to have been adversely affected by the new regulations. A member of an unnamed 25-year-old business stated they lost millions of euros due to increased regulation. A study by the American Chamber of Commerce in Shanghai found that several companies have shifted planned investments away from China to other Southeast Asian nations in response to these changes. In an effort to address concerns, organizations like the European Chamber of Commerce have engaged in discussions with China’s Ministry of Commerce to advocate for more predictable access to rare earth materials.
This is important because, as China’s leadership prepares to outline future strategies for rare earth resource management, global policymakers are expected to monitor developments closely due to the significant role these materials play in the global economy. --- Taiesha K. Morgan
Pa. Electric Customers will Pay to Keep an Old Power Plant Running Under Federal Orders
“The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) approved a plan that allows PJM Interconnection to recover its payments to the plant’s owner, Constellation Energy, from electricity users across its 13-state territory.”
Why this is important: The Trump administration’s Department of Energy has taken an aggressive approach with respect to fossil fuel plant retirements, exercising its authority to foreclose scheduled retirements of old, arguably uneconomic natural gas and coal-fired power plants. As noted in the article, DOE ordered one such plant owned by Constellation Energy in Pennsylvania (and another in Michigan) to remain operational, but extending the life of a plant that may not be actively dispatched except in more extreme or emergency conditions causes a cost, and that cost must be recovered. The article explains that the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission has approved a plan that would allow those costs to be recovered from all electric consumers in the “PJM” footprint, which includes Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and 11 other states in the region. The article captures that although existing fossil fuel-based power plants that can operate economically in the wholesale market for power on a daily basis are important for the power grid, federal policies that mandate the continued operation of uneconomic plants have cost consequences that will adversely impact consumers. --- Derrick Price Williamson
Virginia Energy Groups Urge State to Fight Federal Solar Grant Termination
“About half of Virginia households were expected to qualify for Solar For All, which sought to reduce energy bills by making solar power more affordable.”
Why this is important: The Commonwealth of Virginia is trying to figure out how to move forward after they had a $156 million grant cut after the Big Beautiful Bill was passed by Congress. The grant was a part of Biden administration's Inflation Reduction Act. The article explains that the grant was going to be utilized for the upfront costs of installing solar panels on low to moderate income homes as part of a Solar For All plan. By installing solar panels and making solar power more accessible, the policy was intended to decrease the cost of energy bills. While solar energy is cheap to produce, the cost to install panels can range from $15,000 to $30,000, which is more than middle class and low-income families can spare for solar energy. Per the article, leaders of the Solar For All council are urging state leaders like Governor Glenn Youngkin to fight against the grant cut given preliminary state spending for the project and a plan to install panels on more than 15,000 homes, apartment buildings, and multi-family units. The impact will not only be on those who were to receive the solar panels on their homes, but also on those in the local solar power industry, who were anticipating the addition of about 1,000 jobs to the local solar industry in Virginia.
This is an important reflection of policy changes being implemented by the Trump administration – reducing or eliminating funding for renewable projects while attempting to support a commitment to further other energy sources like coal, oil, and gas. Questions also arise about whether the federal government has breached a legal obligation that Virginia relied on and if the Commonwealth has grounds to challenge the decision under administrative law in order to obtain the resources to finish the solar project. --- Nicholas A. Muto
New EIA Study Shows that CO2 Emissions have Declined 30 Percent Since 2005
“Over that time, total energy-related CO2 emissions in the United States fell 20 percent while the population grew by 14 percent.”
Why this is important: The total per-capita CO2 emissions in the U.S. are down 30 percent since 2005, according to the U.S. Energy Information Agency. In fact, CO2 emissions are down in every state, and the total U.S. drop of 20 percent of total CO2 emissions occurred while the U.S. population grew by 14 percent. EIA attributes the drop to less coal-fired generation, increases in solar and wind generation, and increases in gas-fired electrical generation. However, for 2025, the U.S. EIA sees a one percent increase in total CO2 emissions. Electric power generation was the greatest CO2 generator in 18 states, and five states – West Virginia, Wyoming, Kentucky, Missouri, and North Dakota -- generated half their electricity from burning coal. --- Mark E. Heath
America's Power Grid is No Match for the AI Data Center Boom
“Data center demand for computing facilities that can consume as much power as entire cities, but America's electrical grid is struggling to keep pace.”
Why this is important: Artificial Intelligence (AI) is not new, but it has certainly taken center stage in national energy production and development discussions. The article amplifies that it is no surprise that the U.S. energy grid is old and in need of serious renovation. In addition to current development and consumer needs, AI centers are requesting and requiring a range of multiple gigawatts of power. Some analysts estimate that trillions of dollars are likely to be invested between now and 2030, with as much as $3 trillion by 2028. A key roadblock is the access to fundamental components needed for infrastructure upgrades, such as transformers. With supply chain delays, resource market fluctuation, and the ever-increasing competition from multiple market sources, the increased demand on the grid is also creating delays in the development of other legitimate projects because of the backlog of planned but possibly hypothetical AI data projects. Acres of space, gigawatts of power, and potential environmental consequences are the holy trinity of the AI frenzy. How the grid will sustain itself and expand to meet these demands is yet to be determined. --- Sophia L. Hines
New EV Battery Tech could Power 500-Mile Road Trips on a 12-Minute Charge
“An EV battery breakthrough from Korea could help give lithium-metal tech the green light.”
Why this is important: It seems like battery innovations are announced daily. This new discovery involves a new electrolyte that reduces dendrite formation, a common battery killer, which allows faster charging. Assuming that it can be produced cost-effectively, the article says that the battery would allow for charging to a 500-mile range in 12 minutes, which could be a key factor in convincing internal combustion engine owners to switch to electric vehicles. Charging so much, so fast would also require a huge electricity draw. Large supercharger stations with such fast charging could have the intermittent power demand of a small city, and require liquid-cooled charging cables. --- David L. Yaussy
Wind Turbine Market to Hit $325.6 B by 2034
“For example, Europe added more than 18 GW of wind energy in 2023 and will install 200 GW of new wind capacity from 2024–2030 to meet its climate energy targets.”
Why this is important: The global wind turbine market in 2024 was valued at $151.8 billion. Analysts are predicting it will more than double to $325.6 billion by 2034. The increases are driven by offshore wind and the general growth in renewables. In the next six years, Europe will add 200 GW of wind generation, which will lead to robust growth in the industry. The U.S. wind generation is predicted to grow by $3.4 billion by 2034. --- Mark E. Heath
● EIA Energy Statistics
Here is a round-up of the latest statistics concerning the energy industry.
ELECTRICITY
Electric Power Monthly
PETROLEUM
This Week in Petroleum
Weekly Petroleum Status Report
NATURAL GAS
Short-Term Energy Outlook - Natural Gas
Natural Gas Weekly Update
Natural Gas Futures Prices
COAL
Short-Term Energy Outlook - Coal
Coal Markets
Weekly Coal Production
RENEWABLES
Short-Term Energy Outlook
Monthly Biodiesel Production Report
Monthly Densified Biomass Fuel Report
