United States

• U.S. antitrust enforcement agencies concluded 20 “significant investigations” during the rolling-twelve months (RTM) ended Q2 2019, down from 28 for the RTM ended Q2 2018.
• These significant investigations took an average of 11.4 months from announcement to completion for the RTM ended Q2 2019, compared to 9.9 months in the RTM ended Q2 2018.
• More of these significant investigations had vertical issues. A full 25 percent of significant investigations for the RTM ended Q2 2019 had vertical aspects, compared to 18 percent for the RTM ended Q2 2018.
• DOJ has been more successful than the FTC in streamlining significant investigations. More than 80 percent of DOJ’s H1 2019 significant investigations lasted fewer than 10 months, while 75 percent of the FTC’s significant investigations lasted more than 16 months and only one lasted fewer than 10 months.
• New DAMITT industry data show that the Healthcare & Pharmaceuticals industry keeps the U.S. agencies the busiest, accounting for nearly a third of the significant investigations since 2011; but the Technology industry has recently spiked higher, accounting for 40 percent of H1 2019 activity.

The U.S. antitrust agencies concluded 10 significant merger investigations in H1 2019, compared to 13 in H1 2018. The 20 significant U.S. merger investigations concluded by the DOJ and FTC over the RTM ended Q2 2019 reflected a decline of nearly 30 percent from the 28 that were concluded during the RTM ended Q2 2018.

Over the 12 months ended Q2 2019, only one significant merger investigation (Quad Graphics/LSC Communications)resulted in a complaint seeking to block the transaction, compared to the five complaints that were filed in the prior 12-month period. However, two deals — Securus Technologies/Inmate Calling Solutions and Republic National/Breakthru Beverage — were abandoned in Q2 2019 in the face of litigation threats by the agencies, compared to one abandonment in 2018.

The relative frequency with which U.S. significant investigations raise vertical issues continues to increase. Vertical issues arose in 30 percent of significant investigations in H1 2019, compared to 23 percent in H1 2018. For the RTM ended Q2 2019, the comparable figure was 25 percent, up from 18 percent in the RTM ended Q2 2018.

The EU Commission concluded three significant EU merger investigations in Q2 2019, bringing the total number for H1 2019 to 11. This count is in line with H1 2018 and on pace to match the average of 21 significant merger investigations per year over the 2011-2018 period tracked by DAMITT.

Two of the three significant EU merger investigations resolved in Q2 2019 were cleared with remedies, including one transaction in Phase I and one transaction in Phase II. The remaining transaction, Tata Steel/Thyssenkrupp/JV, was prohibited following a Phase II investigation, which brings the total number of transactions that have been blocked so far in 2019 up to three.

This is already the highest number of prohibitions in any year since the EU Commission suffered a series of damaging reversals in the EU courts in 2002, and the annulment of three prohibition decisions. The multiple prohibitions may, however, not necessarily reflect an increased vigor of enforcement. It is possible that the cases were challenging (each of the three transactions reportedly would have led to the creation of market leaders in already highly concentrated industries), or that the parties were not willing to offer remedies satisfactory to the Commission.

Additionally, it bears noting that two of the transactions (Wieland/Aurubis and Tata Steel/Thyssenkrupp/JV) were notified following mergers involving their respective competitors. So the key takeaway from these transactions is perhaps that there may be a first-mover advantage in a consolidating industry: the EU Commission operates a priority principle by which the first transaction to be notified will be assessed as if there were no second transaction pending. By contrast, U.S. authorities do not apply a strict priority principle, and may in some circumstances assess the impact of multiple pending transactions in combination.

The length of significant U.S. investigations continues to rise. For H1 2019, the average duration from the announcement of the deal to the conclusion of the investigation was 12.1 months, up from 10.2 months in H1 2018. For the RTM ended Q2 2019, the average was 11.4 months, up from 9.9 months in the RTM ended Q2 2018.

At nearly 19 months, UnitedHealth’s acquisition of DaVita Medical Group provoked the longest significant U.S. merger investigation concluded in H1 2019 and the eighth-longest since 2011.

Significant U.S. investigations with vertical aspects concluding in H1 2019 averaged about 15.3 months, compared to 10.8 months for the remainder of deals concluding in H1 2019. These H1 2019 results align with DAMITT’s prior finding that significant U.S. investigations with vertical aspects tend to last longer on average than those without vertical aspects.

Citing DAMITT findings, both the U.S. DOJ and FTC announced planned reforms to the merger review process in late 2018. To date, DOJ has made strides with its reforms in shortening the review process, as more than 80 percent of DOJ’s H1 2019 significant investigations lasted fewer than ten months. In marked contrast, however, 75 percent of the FTC’s significant investigations concluded during H1 2019 lasted more than 16 months and only one lasted fewer than ten months. DAMITT will continue to observe whether this clear difference in duration between the two federal agencies continues to hold in future months.

While prior DAMITT analyses found that antitrust merger litigation added an additional five to seven months to the merger process, no merger litigations have completed during H1 2019. The only significant U.S. investigation resulting in a complaint during H1 2019 (Quad Graphics/LSC Communications) was filed by DOJ on June 26, 2019 and a trial on the legality of the merger was scheduled to begin on November 14, 2019 —which is 148 days later.

In comparison, antitrust merger cases commenced between 2015 and 2018 started on average about 107 days after the complaint was filed. Although Quad and LSC have since abandoned their transaction, the scheduled litigation was atypical in that if the merger had been deemed unlawful by the court, the judge had ordered the parties to establish a separate case schedule for a hearing on any remedy proposed by the merging companies. If followed by other courts, this bifurcation would make it even more difficult for companies proposing a merger remedy to hold their deals together through a lengthy investigation, lengthy litigation on the legality of the merger, and additional litigation over any proposed remedy.

The average duration of significant U.S. investigations has varied significantly by industry. Since 2011, Chemical industry mergers have taken the longest at 12.3 months on average. By comparison, significant investigations in the Financial Services and Transportation industries have taken only about half as long, averaging 6.0 and 6.4 months, respectively.

In the EU, DAMITT Observes Sectoral Variations for Phase I and II Clearances; 90% of Significant Investigations in the Healthcare & Pharmaceuticals Sector are Resolved in Phase I with Remedy Compared to only 25% in the Telecommunication Sector

Transactions in the Industrial Products & Services sector have accounted for the largest portion (32 percent) of EU significant investigations since 2011. This sector includes transactions in a number of sub-sectors that have witnessed significant enforcement activity in the EU, such as Metals and Minerals and Construction/Building Materials. The Healthcare & Pharmaceuticals industry had the second-highest level of activity, accounting for 12 percent of EU significant investigations. Retail & Consumer Products and Chemicals transactions tied for the third place, representing 11 percent of EU significant investigations.

The breakdown of the data between significant Phase I and Phase II investigations reveals differences in the proportion of Phase II investigations across industries. For instance, over the 2011-H1 2019 period tracked by DAMITT, 90 percent of significant EU merger investigations in the Healthcare & Pharmaceuticals sector were resolved in Phase I with remedies; whereas 75 percent of significant transactions in the Telecommunications sector underwent a Phase II investigation. The established decisional practice of the EU Commission in a number of sectors (e.g., Healthcare & Pharmaceuticals and Transportation) is likely a facilitating factor, allowing parties to identify potential issues and remedies early on.

A review of the average duration of significant Phase I and Phase II investigations by industry highlights substantial timing differences. The Energy sector accounted for the longest average duration in both Phase I and Phase II cases at 9.1 and 17.7 months, respectively.

Within the Industrial Products & Services category, cases involving Construction/Building Materials stood out for their great length, averaging 18.1 months in Phase II. In contrast, transactions in the Transportation sector accounted for the shortest average duration for significant Phase I investigations at only 5.0 months from announcement to clearance. The relative speed of significant investigations in this sector is further reflected in the average duration of Phase II proceedings; the 10.2-month average for Transportation is only slightly behind the shortest average duration of 10.1 months for Phase II proceedings in the Technology sector.

Phase II proceedings are on average roughly twice the length of Phase I reviews. However, the analysis shows that the increase in duration between Phase I and Phase II varies across industries. For instance, undergoing a Phase II review in the Technology sector adds 4.0 months to the review timetable; whereas the transactions in the Energy sector show the biggest jump with an average increase of 8.6 months.