The House and Senate are both out of session.
The firm’s Government Affairs and Public Policy (GAPP) group has had conversations with decision makers who indicate the shutdown could end as soon as next week. On November 4, New Jersey and Virginia will hold gubernatorial elections, which could influence negotiations.
President Trump called for Republicans to eliminate the filibuster so that they can pass a clean continuing resolution (CR) with a simple majority, rather than the required 60 votes. Eliminating the filibuster is an issue that President Trump has championed since his first term in office. Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD), Speaker of the House Mike Johnson (R-LA), and many other Republicans are not interested in removing the filibuster due to concerns that doing so could backfire if control of the Senate shifts in the future. We do not anticipate a vote on the Senate floor to eliminate the filibuster.
Senator Thune has asserted that the “60-vote threshold has protected this country,” and Senator John Curtis (R-UT) agreed, noting that “power changes hands, but principles shouldn’t,” and that the filibuster forces senators to find common ground.
The Affordable Care Act (ACA)
November 1 marks the start of ACA open enrollment, meaning Americans will officially see the full price of their health insurance premiums without subsidies. The sticker shock, to the extent there is one, may make waves as Americans across the country face challenges to the affordability of healthcare. We are likely to see Democrats ramp up messaging about healthcare costs and the need for an ACA subsidy extension before the end of the year.
The ACA subsidies are expected to have varying impacts on states, depending on the specific programs. States that use the HealthCare.gov program may see premiums rise by an average of 26 percent, while states that use their own programs may see premiums rise by an average of 17 percent.
Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP)
A federal judge ruled this afternoon that the Administration must use the $5 billion emergency contingency funds to cover SNAP. It is unclear whether the Administration will appeal this decision. The funds would only cover SNAP benefits for part of November and would take some time to roll out, as the process of reloading the EBT cards used by beneficiaries typically takes one to two weeks.
Since this is only partial funding, states will still need to account for the benefits that are not covered for the remainder of the month.
In a press conference this morning, Department of Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins stated that it is a misconception that the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) can utilize emergency funds to fund SNAP benefits. She explained that there is a contingency fund, but it doesn’t cover even half of the required amount and can only be used if the underlying program is funded. She added that, by law, a contingency fund can only flow if the underlying program is funded.
States that have previously issued notices stating that their SNAP participants would not receive benefits in the absence of federal funding include Arkansas, Alabama, California, Florida, Hawaii, Indiana, Mississippi, New Jersey, Tennessee, Texas, and South Dakota. Unless emergency funding is provided, these states do not have any alternative funding to fill the gap. It is notable that 4.6 million people in California receive SNAP benefits, 3.5 million in Texas, and 3 million people in Florida.
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