Both continuing resolutions (CRs) failed to reach the 60-vote threshold needed to reopen the government. The Democrat-backed CR (S. 2882) failed by a vote of 47-50, and the Republican-backed House CR (H.R. 5371) failed by a vote of 54-45.
Congressional Update
Despite the government shutdown and the House being out of session, the Senate has been conducting legislative business as usual. This week, they held 18 committee hearings, voted on new legislation, and confirmed presidential nominations.
Majority Leader Thune (R-SD) has decided to continue progress on the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) (S. 2296) for the fiscal year 2026 during the shutdown. As of tonight, the Senate has begun consideration of 17 amendments to the NDAA.
Senate leadership continues to remain at odds. Minority Leader Schumer (D-NY) was quoted in an interview this morning saying that “every day gets better for us [Democrats].” Republicans have been seizing on this statement, using it repeatedly throughout the day to cast Schumer as trying to take political advantage of the shutdown.
At this time, there are no signs that the House will return to D.C. next week.
Administration Updates
The Office of Management and Budget (OMB) and the President continue to suggest furloughed employees may not receive back pay, while both House and Senate leadership have maintained that workers will be paid.
Following the furlough of half its workforce, the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) issued another memo today stating that the original message of guaranteed back pay was incorrect. Employees were told the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) would provide further guidance on the issue. Similar guidance regarding default to the OMB was circulated to furloughed employees at the Department of the Interior earlier this week.
In a televised cabinet meeting this morning, President Trump once again promised permanent layoffs during the shutdown, noting that cuts will only be coming from “Democrat programs.”
Our Analysis
It is Day 9 of the Shutdown and the Republicans’ current approach of waiting it out has not yielded any additional Democratic votes for the clean CR. Despite the lack of movement on the vote, members continue to engage in conversations across the aisle. Leader Thune and Majority Whip John Barasso (R-WY) are weighing the option of offering Democrats a future vote on extending Affordable Care Act (ACA) subsidies in exchange for ending the government shutdown. Senator Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH), who has been one to watch during this shutdown, said, “I think it’s positive that their [Republican] leaders are recognizing that we need to vote, but I think we need reassurances on what that means actually.” Her comments reflect larger concerns from the Democratic Party that Republicans will promise a healthcare deal after the government reopens, but then never follow through on that promise.
There are several key issues that continue to play a critical role in the progression of the shutdown.
The military will miss their first paycheck next Wednesday, October 15. This is an issue that crosses party lines and will need to be addressed. Yesterday, more than 70 House Democrats, including Minority Leader Jeffries (D-NY), signed a letter urging Speaker Johnson (R-LA) to bring the House back in session to vote on a separate bill to fund the military. Speaker Johnson has been largely unreceptive to this push, asserting that the House has done its job and that the Senate is responsible for any further shutdown progress. Today, however, Speaker Johnson received a call on C-SPAN from a Republican military mom, begging him to pass the legislation.
If the House does not follow through on a separate military funding bill, it will pressure the Senate to address the situation and provide a sense of urgency for shutdown negotiations.
Air traffic controllers are becoming an increasingly important player as the shutdown progresses. They are deemed essential and are expected to work without pay during a shutdown; however, an increasing number have been calling out sick with each passing day of the shutdown. If the problem persists or worsens, it could put additional pressure on Senators to reopen the government.
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