At 36 days, the government shutdown has now become the longest in U.S. history.
On Election Day, Democrat candidates had major victories in Virginia, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Georgia and New York. Today, momentum on negotiations to end the shutdown has slowed. The firm’s Government Affairs and Public Policy (GAPP) group has heard from sources who continue to suggest that a vote on a new continuing resolution (CR) with a three-bill minibus attached could happen in the Senate before next week. Meanwhile, appropriators continue to push forward, and the House is on notice that they may need to return to Washington, D.C. to vote on a package to reopen the government.
Election aftermath
Democrats seem encouraged by election results, with Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) calling the outcomes a “repudiation of the Trump agenda” and “a good night for Democrats and our fight to lower costs, improve healthcare, and reach a better future for American families.” Across elections, Democrats reversed voter trends from last year, making significant headway among the Black and Latino vote, as well as in wealthy suburbs and with younger voters, particularly younger men.
Republican leadership has insisted the election results are not indicative of what will happen in the midterms next fall, although President Trump has characterized the losses as a blow to the Republican party and attributed the shutdown as a negative factor.
President Trump weighs in
No deal emerged from Senate Republicans’ breakfast meeting at the White House; however, President Trump doubled down on his calls for the Senate to eliminate the filibuster and pass the clean CR. Senators Ron Johnson (R-WI), Tommy Tuberville (R-AL), John Cornyn (R-TX), and Jim Justice (R-WV) have expressed willingness to vote in favor of removing the filibuster, but Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) maintains they do not have the 60 votes needed for it to pass. Senator Thune and other Republicans have been vocal about their support of the filibuster as a crucial bipartisan Senate procedure. There is currently no path forward for eliminating the filibuster.
Senator Schumer and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) wrote a letter to President Trump requesting a meeting to discuss an end to the shutdown “anytime and anyplace.”
Three agreements that must be reached
The current proposed CR is set to expire on November 21, which gives Congress minimal time to work out a funding solution. The general consensus is that a new CR will need to be proposed; however, issues likely need to be resolved before a negotiation can be reached in the Senate. These issues are:
- For how long should the new CR be extended?
- How should the Affordable Care Act (ACA) subsidies be reformed to pass a bipartisan vote on extension?
- Should a package of three full-year appropriations bills, also known as a minibus, be attached to the new CR?
Disagreement on these three issues persists, including among members of the same party.
Shutdown impacts continue piling
The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) announced that staff shortages will lead to a 10 percent reduction in flights nationwide beginning next week. The reduction is expected to be spread across 40 “high volume” airports to maintain safety. FAA officials are scheduled to meet with airline officials to discuss how to implement the flight reductions. At this time, it remains unknown which airports could be affected.
While the Administration is complying with court orders to use emergency funds to distribute SNAP benefits, recipients are receiving only half of their normal monthly payments.
The Low-Income Home Energy Assistance Program (LIHEAP) is another program that may be affected as the shutdown continues. The program assists families with utility bills, primarily with home heating. States manage the program individually but receive federal funding. Several states, including Kansas, Pennsylvania, New York, and Minnesota, are warning that funding for the program is being delayed due to the federal shutdown.
It is unlikely to be one individual issue that is the tipping point to reopening the government but, rather, a combination of the various issues.
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