The US government shutdown began on October 1, 2025, with a resolution hinging on Senate passage of a House-approved funding bill. The shutdown is causing federal job cuts, funding freezes, and missed pay for federal workers, while unions challenge the legality of these actions.
GAPP Intel and Analysis
As the shutdown continues, the Government Affairs and Public Policy (GAPP) group remains in close contact with Congressional contacts, collecting intelligence on critical conversations and potential solutions under consideration.
Our intelligence suggests the only potential off-ramp at this point is for the Senate to pass the clean Continuing Resolution (CR) already passed by the House. The Senate has tried and failed to do so three times. If passed through the Senate, the CR could then be signed into law by the President and end the shutdown. Senate Majority Leader Thune has indicated he will call a vote on the CR nearly daily. In the Senate, 60 affirmative votes are necessary to pass the CR, meaning 7 Democrats must join Republicans in voting for it. So far, two Democrats have broken ranks with their party - Senators Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV)and John Fetterman (D-PA) – joined by Angus King (I-ME).
- Senator Cortez Masto represents Nevada, which has a significant number of federal employees. She won her election in this swing state by less than 1% in 2022. Both of these factors may have contributed to her vote.
- Senator Fetterman consistently said a shutdown would cause unnecessary chaos, saying to reporters that, “If Democrats truly believe we’re on a rocket sled to autocracy, why would we hand a shuttered government over to [President] Trump and [Office of Management and Budget (OMB) Director Russell] Vought’s woodchipper at the OMB?”
- Senator King, an independent who caucuses with the Democrats, said this was one of the most difficult votes he has cast. He expressed concerns that shutting down the government would give President Trump, Russell Vought, and Stephen Miller even more power to cut programs and “decimate the federal government.”
Senators who are not seeking reelection may be some of the first to break ranks as the shutdown continues, as they have less pressure to side with their party. Prior to the shutdown, there was speculation on the Hill that Senators Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH) and Gary Peters (D-MI), neither of whom are seeking reelection, would vote in favor of a CR. At this point, both senators have remained committed to sticking with their party and voting against it.
A House Appropriations Committee staffer signaled to the GAPP team that the shutdown may be resolved by October 14th because, if it isn’t, active-duty service members will begin missing pay.
As Republican senators look for other potential solutions to end the shutdown, there has been discussion about attaching the three appropriations bills passed by the Senate to the CR as a minibus. The three appropriations bills that were taken up by the full Senate are the Agriculture, Legislative Branch, and Military Construction bills. Several other senators, including Senator Tommy Tuberville (R-AL), Senator Lisa Murkowski (R-AK), and Senator Dan Sullivan (R-AK) have participated in discussions to provide their own proposal for extending ACA subsidies.
What is the Congressional schedule going into the weekend?
On the morning of October 1, Leader Thune called both CR’s to the Senate floor for a vote, both of which failed to pass once again, by votes of 47-53 for the Democrat-led CR and votes of 55-45 for the House CR, with the same three Democratic Senators voting in favor of the House CR alongside Republicans. The Senate will now be out of session beginning Wednesday night for Yom Kippur. They returned on Friday, October 2 to continue voting and working on negotiations into the weekend. House leadership has indicated they will call everyone back the following week of October 6.
What is the OMB doing?
In the afternoon of October 1, OMB Director Russell Vought had a short call with House Republicans, informing them that reductions in force (RIFs) would be coming in the next day or two. RIFs are permanent, whereas furloughing is a temporary measure used during shutdowns.
Reductions in Force
- The U.S. Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO) told employees today that a 1% RIF is going into effect, meaning approximately 140 people will lose their jobs.
Punishment for blue states
- Director Vought is freezing roughly $18 billion in infrastructure funding to New York City (Hudson Tunnel Project and Second Ave Subway), projects in Senator Schumer’s home state. Director Vought stated he wants to ensure that funding is not flowing to DEI principles.
- Director Vought is also cancelling $8 billion in Green New Deal funding in California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Oregon, Vermont, and Washington.
Workers’ unions push back
- The workers' unions, the American Federation of Government Employees and the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees, are suing OMB and Office of Personnel Management (OPM) over their threats of mass layoffs while the government is shut down. The unions are arguing that OMB Director Vought broke the law by directing agencies to cut staff through RIF plans during the government shutdown. The lawsuit calls the actions "contrary to law and arbitrary and capricious.”
Furloughing
- According to a Congressional Budget Office analysis, about 750,000 employees could be furloughed each day – the total daily cost of their compensation would be roughly $400 million.
- Individual members of Congress have the discretion on whether or not to deem their staffers as essential or to furlough them during periods of a lapse in government funding. If deemed essential, staff will continue to work, unpaid, throughout the duration of the shutdown. Note, Congressional members are still paid during a lapse in funding.
The GAPP group will continue to provide daily updates on the government shutdown through a combination of news and intelligence sharing.
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