Early-stage strength, late-stage strain, and an enduring AI premium define this quarter’s venture landscape.
In partnership with Aumni, a J.P. Morgan company, we’re pleased to share the Q3 2025 edition of the Venture Beacon. This report delivers a detailed, data-driven look at early- and late-stage deal activity, valuation trends, and structural shifts in the venture ecosystem.
Select Highlights from the Q3 2025 Venture Beacon:
- Stage-dependent performance: Series A and B rounds showed strong valuation growth (1.6%-29%) while Series C financings declined sharply (30%-40%) across key metrics, reinforcing Series C as a critical filtering point for scaling companies.
- Late-stage valuation pressure: Series C+ down rounds nearly doubled from 16% in the first half of the year to over 28% in Q3, with increased negative markups in the lower quartile pressuring companies unable to demonstrate sustainable growth.
- AI premium persists: AI companies maintained a 2.5x revenue multiple advantage over non-AI peers (20x vs. 8x), with valuation gaps continuing to widen, though still trailing Nasdaq 100 growth in recent years.
- Consistent deal terms: Liquidation preference multiples above 1x remained rare (<4% of deals), while founder preferred stock increased modestly to just under 10% of companies.
- Secondary market composition shift: An increase in premium pricing in secondary markets reflects a potential flight to quality rather than broad-based appreciation, with preferred stock now comprising 47% of transactions versus 33% in 2024.
- Convertible instrument trends: Investment amounts in SAFEs improved across the board, while convertible notes declined across most ranges, despite higher valuation caps in select brackets.
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