Economic Commentary -

Although there are no signs apparent of an imminent recession in the U.S. or other major global economies, there is some uncertainty whether this is a brief period of moderating global growth or an extended slowdown.

In the U.S., slower growth was evident among several recent economic releases, including a 19-month low for service sector growth; an 18-month low for ADP private sector job growth (missing estimates by -22%); and the first decline among durable goods orders in four months with a drop of 1.6%. The U.S. inflation rate also dropped unexpectedly. Slowing economic growth portends lower earnings growth, which happens to coincide, or perhaps is, in large part, the result of the U.S./China trade dispute.