Market Commentary
- The secondaries market is on track for a record-breaking year, reaching $165 billion in transaction value through Q3 2025, with strong momentum carrying into the final quarter of the year, fueled by rising liquidity needs amid a challenging exit environment.
- Secondaries deal activity in Q3 2025 reached $60 billion, putting 2025 on pace to exceed an unprecedented $210 billion.
- Schroders Capital believes that secondaries could transform the industry’s buyout model, with continuation vehicles (CVs) functioning as a cost-effective method to continue transformational growth without the disruption of a change of control. Verdun Perry of Blackstone predicts annual secondaries deal value could reach $220 billion by the end of 2025 and $400 billion by 2030.
- Through Q3, 16% of sponsor exit volume in 2025 is attributed to GP-led secondaries, reflecting the growing importance of CVs in extending ownership and supporting more consistent returns.
- Private wealth fundraising represents 18% of overall near-term fundraising in the secondaries market as of Q3 2025. Growth in the retail channel is supplying GPs with steady capital that necessitates quick deployment, fueling higher CV pricing and activity—especially in multi-asset deals (47% of GP-led issuance in H1 2025 vs. 32% in H1 2024).
The secondaries market has experienced unprecedented growth through Q3 2025, with total deal value already exceeding full-year 2024, while total deal count grew 29% (1,029 in H1 2024 to 1,329 in H1 2025).
Despite lower fund count (63% YoY decline), PE secondaries fundraising is up 42% YoY on a capital raised basis, as a small cohort of firms raise large funds amid rising demand for dedicated strategies and / or demand for a broader alternative asset exposure (including Ardian’s $30 billion ASF IX and AlpInvest’s $20 billion ASP VIII).
Bolstered by the AI boom, Technology has seen the most growth in terms of GP-led secondaries market transactions, accounting for 24% of aggregate deal value in H1 2025, compared to 16% in full-year 2024.
The secondaries market has bolstered its capitalization, with dry powder reaching an estimated $315 billion as of Q3 2025. Elevated dry powder levels and growing demand for liquidity positions the secondaries market for strong activity in the near-term. In light of the substantial dry powder held by dedicated secondaries funds—including more than ten flagship funds exceeding $10 billion each—and strong U.S. corporate profitability, current market conditions are conducive for additional managers to bring continuation vehicles to market.
Sources: Campbell Lutyens, Evercore, Jefferies, PJT Partners, PitchBook, Preqin, Private Equity International, S&P Global, Secondaries Investor, Setter Capital.
