Welcome to this month’s issue of The BR International Trade Report, Blank Rome’s monthly digital newsletter highlighting international trade, cross-border investment, and geopolitical risk issues impacting businesses domestically and abroad. We invite you to share this resource with your colleagues and visit Blank Rome’s International Trade webpage for more information about our team.
Recent Developments
U.S.-Venezuela developments:
- U.S. military captures Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro to face federal charges. After months of escalating tensions between the United States and Venezuela, U.S. special forces captured President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, from their residence in Caracas in the early hours of January 3, 2026. Maduro and his wife were transported to New York to face federal charges relating to narcoterrorism, and are currently being held in a Brooklyn federal jail. At his January 5 arraignment, Maduro maintained his innocence and pled not guilty to all charges.
- U.S. captures oil tankers linked to Venezuela. Over the last month, the United States seized several oil tankers in furtherance of President Trump’s December 17, 2025 “blockade of all sanctioned oil tankers going into, and out of, Venezuela.”
- Washington declares control of Venezuelan oil reserves. Following the capture of Maduro, President Trump announced that the United States would control Venezuela’s oil reserves indefinitely, to both rebuild its oil industry and infrastructure and benefit the American people. To support this initiative, President Trump signed an executive order committing the United States to safeguard Venezuelan oil reserves from judicial process. Furthermore, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that the Trump Administration will soon “de-sanction[ ] the oil that’s going to be sold.”
Trump Administration resumes push to acquire Greenland. President Trump has renewed his call for the United States to acquire Greenland as a “national security priority.” According to the White House, U.S. officials have discussed “a range of options to pursue this important foreign policy goal, and of course, utilizing the U.S. military is always an option at the Commander in Chief’s disposal.” In response, the leaders of France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain, the United Kingdom, and Denmark issued a joint statement emphasizing “Greenland belongs to its people. It is for Denmark and Greenland, and them only, to decide on matters concerning Denmark and Greenland.”
Protests flare across Iran. In late December 2025, deadly protests erupted across Iran in response to rising inflation and economic conditions. The demonstrations have rapidly grown in size and scope, reportedly claiming the lives of thousands of people, as Iranians protest the regime of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. President Trump has since indicated that “[t]he USA stands ready to help” the people of Iran, and reportedly has been briefed on a range of options. On January 12, he announced the imposition of a 25 percent tariff on any country that does business with Iran, and on January 13, he called on the protesters to take over the country’s institutions and stated that “[h]elp is on its way.” A later report indicated that the President has delayed military action following urgent outreach from Persian Gulf states.
U.S. trade deficit hits lowest level since 2009. On January 8, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis released trade data from October 2025 showing a monthly trade deficit of $29.4 billion, the lowest since June 2009. Exports increased 2.6 percent while imports declined 3.2 percent, amidst the Trump Administration’s various tariff actions and trade deals.
Chinese military holds drills around Taiwan. In late December 2025, the Chinese military conducted large-scale drills around Taiwan, announced as “Justice Mission 2025.” The drills included the use of jet fighters, naval ships, and the air force, with a stated goal of “all-dimensional deterrence” outside Taiwan. This show of force came shortly after the United States approved an $11.1 billion weapons package to Taiwan on December 17. Taiwan responded with its own military exercises by deploying tanks into the streets and dispatching coast guard units into the Taiwan Strait.
China announces dual-use export ban for Japan. On January 6, China’s Commerce Ministry (“MOFCOM”) banned exports of dual-use goods to “Japanese military users, military uses, and all other end-user uses that contribute to enhancing Japan’s military strength,” citing the ongoing rift between the two countries relating to Taiwan. Japanese officials have “strongly protested” the Chinese announcement, which followed China’s two-day military drills around Taiwan.
BIS revises license review policy for semiconductor exports to China. On January 15, the U.S. Department of Commerce’s Bureau of Industry and Security (“BIS”) issued a final rule revising its license review policy for certain advanced semiconductors and computing items bound for China and Macau from a presumption of denial to a case-by-case analysis, if certain conditions are met. As described by BIS in its press release, “license applicants must demonstrate that exporting these products to China will not reduce global semiconductor production capacity currently available to U.S. customers; that the Chinese purchaser has adopted export compliance procedures, including customer screening; and that the product has undergone independent, third-party testing in the United States to verify its performance and security.”
Section 232 actions.
- President Trump imposes 25 percent tariff on imported semiconductors following BIS Section 232 investigation. On January 14, President Trump signed a Proclamation imposing a 25 percent tariff on a “very narrow category” of advanced semiconductors and their derivative products used in artificial intelligence. Per the corresponding White House Fact Sheet, the “tariff will not apply to chips that are imported to support the buildout of the U.S. technology supply chain and the strengthening of domestic manufacturing capacity for derivatives of semiconductors.” The Proclamation also directs the Secretary of Commerce and the U.S. Trade Representative (“USTR”) to pursue trade negotiations regarding imported semiconductors, semiconductor manufacturing equipment, and their derivative products, and report to the President regarding such negotiations by April 14, 2026. The President may impose additional tariffs after receiving this report.
- BIS concludes Section 232 investigation into critical minerals. On January 14, President Trump signed a Proclamation detailing BIS’s Section 232 investigation into processed critical minerals and their derivative products (“PCMDPs”). Notably, the Proclamation does not impose new tariffs, but rather directs the Secretary of Commerce and the USTR to pursue trade negotiations to “address the threatened impairment of the national security with respect to imports of PCMDPs from any country.” As further described in the corresponding White House Fact Sheet, if the “the agreements directed to be negotiated are not entered into within 180 days of the proclamation, are not being carried out, or are ineffective,” the Trump Administration may take additional action, including the imposition of tariffs.
EU member states approve trade deal with MERCOSUR. On January 9, more than a year after the European Union and MERCOSUR (a trade bloc comprised of Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay) reached a landmark free trade agreement, a majority of EU member states ratified its creation—pushing closer the establishment of the largest free trade zone in the world. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyden is expected to travel to Paraguay on January 17 to formally sign the agreement. Following the signing ceremony, the deal will move to the European Parliament for a final vote.
FCC adds foreign-produced drones to Covered List, effectively banning them. On December 23, 2025, the Federal Communications Commission (“FCC”) released a public notice announcing the placement of drones “produced in a foreign country” on the Covered List. The determination, which followed a security review under the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2025, indicates that foreign-made drones “could enable persistent surveillance, data exfiltration, and destructive operations over U.S. territory.” In response, China’s Commerce Ministry accused the United States of “unilateral bullying.” The FCC has since exempted certain drones from the ban through the end of 2026.
Global Elections.
- José Antonio Kast wins Chile’s presidential election. On December 14, 2025, right-wing candidate José Antonio Kast won the Chilean presidential runoff, claiming victory over Jeannette Jar of the Communist Party. Following the election, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio issued a statement remarking on Washington’s “confiden[ce that] Chile will advance shared priorities to include strengthening public security, ending illegal immigration, and revitalizing our commercial relationship.” President-elect Kast will be sworn in on March 11, 2026.
- Burma holds first general election in five years. The three-phase election, run by the country’s military junta, will conclude on January 25, 2026. While United Nations Special Rapporteur on the situation of human rights in Myanmar, Tom Andrews, has condemned the election as a sham, U.S. Secretary of Homeland Security Kristi Noem in November expressed support for the country’s movement towards “free and fair elections” amidst the Trump Administration’s termination of Temporary Protected Status for Burmese refugees in the United States.
- General Mamady Doumbouya declared victor in Guinea’s presidential election. General Doumbouya, who first took power in 2021 following the overthrow of former president Alpha Condé, won 80 percent of the December 28, 2025 vote after barring certain opposition candidates from participating in the election. Guinea’s Supreme Court validated General Doumbouya’s victory on January 5, 2026.
- Faustin Archange Touadéra reelected as president of the Central African Republic. Provisional election results indicate that Touadéra secured approximately 76 percent of the vote. Opposition candidates have since contested the election, claiming instances of widespread fraud and malpractice by the National Elections Authority.
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