The “Trade Deals That Work For All Americans” page of the White House website proclaims a shift in U.S. trade policy away from “trade deals that put the interests of insiders and the Washington elite over the hard-working men and women of this country.” As reported previously, President Trump also has expressed a preference for bilateral instead of multilateral trade deals.

With regard to the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), the White House website further explains that “President Trump is committed to renegotiating NAFTA. If our partners refuse a renegotiation that gives American workers a fair deal, then the President will give notice of the United States’ intent to withdraw from NAFTA” under NAFTA Article 2205, which allows the United States to withdraw from NAFTA “six months after it provides written notice” to Canada and Mexico.

Recent statements by leaders in Canada, Mexico, and the United States appear to indicate that each of the three parties is amenable to renegotiation. The scope of any changes, and whether those modifications will occur through a trilateral process that includes all three countries, or through a new bilateral framework, remain open questions. For example, President Trump reaffirmed the “outstanding trade relationship” between the United States and Canada in a recent Joint-Press Conference with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. President Trump distinguished between the “tweaking” of the U.S.-Canada trade relationship and the modifications that are necessary to remedy the “extremely unfair” U.S.-Mexico trade relationship. President Trump described Canada as “a much less severe situation than what’s taking place on the southern border” with Mexico. Mexican interests are developing potential responses to President Trump’s positions, including reports of retaliatory legislation introduced in the Mexican Senate that would reduce imports of U.S. corn into Mexico.

Canadian Foreign Affairs Minister Chrystia Freeland appeared to downplay the potential for separate bilateral successor agreements to NAFTA in remarks at a New Strategies for a New North America Panel held by the Canadian Council for the Americas. Ms. Freeland stated that “there is no negotiation process yet” and that “the United States does not yet have a team in place that could begin those negotiations, so let’s not put the cart before the horse.”

Ms. Freeland reiterated that “we very much recognize that NAFTA is a three-country agreement and were there to be any negotiations, those would be three-way negotiations.” Luis Videgaray, Mexican Minister of Foreign Affairs, also attended the panel session. Other press reports indicate that the Government of Mexico has begun 90 days of consultations with stakeholders as a prelude to potential NAFTA-related renegotiations. Thus, whether the cart is before the horse at present is perhaps less important than acknowledging that all of the necessary players appear to be getting ready to roll.

Other developments regarding the U.S. focus on bilateral trade agreements include reports of possible talks with the United Kingdom and Japan on bilateral trade deals. This contrasts with other reports indicating less favorable responses to bilateral trade negotiation inquiries made by the United States to Germany and France.

In sum, while many questions about NAFTA renegotiation and what comes next remain unanswered, it is clear that the NAFTA stakeholders and other trade partners around the world are taking steps to meet the challenges and opportunities presented by the shift in U.S. trade policy under President Trump.