[co-author: Sofia D'Amico]
On 17 March 2026, the Italian Competition Authority (“ICA”) announced the opening of sector inquiry, accompanied by a parallel public consultation (the “QC inquiry”), to examine the competitive dynamics of quantum computing (“QC”) and related markets. Interested stakeholders may submit observations by 30 April 2026. While the QC inquiry was launched by the ICA on its own initiative, it is not an isolated national exercise. Rather, it seems to reflect a broader policy direction set at EU level, where QC is recognised as a strategic technology for Europe's competitive-ness, economic security and technological sovereignty. Within that framework, the QC inquiry provides an example of how competition policy is increasingly deployed pre-emptively, to ensure that antitrust risks do not become structural barriers to the development of emerging deep tech markets.
Key takeaways:
- Addressing antitrust risks in the QC sector is a competition policy priority. The ICA’s market investigation and public consultation reflect a broader EU policy focus on antitrust risks as potential barriers to the development of strategic deep‑tech markets.
- Pre‑emptive antitrust approach. Consistent with the EU Quantum Europe Strategy and Competitiveness Compass, the ICA is intervening early to preserve openness, contestability and innovation, and avoid the crystallization of anticompetitive dynamics in the QC sector.
- Antitrust scrutiny will shape the QC ecosystem. Cloud gatekeeping, lock‑in risks, patent pre‑emption and early acquisitions are the primary focus of the ICA’s antitrust scrutiny.
- Antitrust compliance should form an integral part of quantum planning, including IP management, partnerships, cloud arrangements and M&A.
QC, EU industrial policy and the role of competition law
Over the past year, policy-makers at the EU and Member States’ levels have significantly intensified their focus on QC. The Quantum Europe Strategy of 2 July 2025 establishes the overarching framework for quantum related initiatives, with the objective of positioning the EU as a global quantum leader by 2030. The Strategy is structured around five pillars: research and innovation; quantum infrastructures; ecosystem development (including start ups and scale ups); space and dual use technologies; and quantum skills.
While the Quantum Europe Strategy is primarily oriented towards funding, infrastructure and industrial capacity, it is explicitly embedded in the wider roadmap set out in the EU’s Competitiveness Compass.1 The Compass acknowledges that Europe’s ability to scale deep tech innovation depends not only on public investment, but also on adopting and enforcing an effective competition policy.
“Effectiveness” in this context is primarily measured by two complementary metrics. First, rigorous antitrust and merger control enforcement, which is considered essential to preserve fair competition and innovation incentives within the Single Market. Second, the ability to take a “fresh approach” to antitrust enforcement,2 which would avoiding any unnecessary constraints for innovation and “keep pace with evolving markets and tech innovation”.3
It is within this broader policy context that the ICA’s quantum initiative must be understood.
ICA seeks to identify and pre-empt antitrust risks in the QC sector
Rather than reacting to established market power or actual infringements of the antitrust rules, the QC inquiry is intended to enable the ICA to map competitive dynamics at an early stage of market formation. The ICA expressly recognises QC as a transformative “Key Enabling Technology”, capable of delivering exponentially superior computing capabilities, while also emphasising that the sector is still in an early but rapidly accelerating phase of industrialisation.
This combination of strategic importance and market development underpins the ICA’s approach. Through the QC inquiry, the ICA seeks to understand how QC markets may evolve, where competitive bottlenecks may arise, and which forms of conduct or market structure could undermine openness, contestability and long term innovation.
From an antitrust perspective, the QC inquiry therefore exemplifies a pre-emptive antitrust approach, which is at the centre of the recent EU and national approach in this space, and is aligned with the rationale of the EU’s Competitiveness Compass: that is, safeguarding competitive conditions early on, so that enforcement does not later need to correct entrenched distortions that are difficult to unwind.
Antitrust risks identified by the ICA as potential barriers to QC market development
In its decision opening the QC inquiry, the ICA identifies a series of interrelated antitrust risks that could, if left unaddressed, act as barriers to the development of a competitive and resilient QC ecosystem.
These risks include, in particular:
- unclear market boundaries between QC hardware and software, favouring vertically integrated early movers, also given the high entry barriers: while competition to establish a reference technological standard is still ongoing, developers and manufacturers of hardware components are usually also involved in the definition and development of the corresponding software layers, thereby reinforcing vertical integration dynamics;
- gatekeeping risks linked to “Hyperscalers”4 cloud and data centre operators, acting as “privileged intermediaries” between interested parties and QC. By integrating access to QC within their existing cloud offerings, these operators may effectively structure the emerging market around a “Quantum-as-a-Service” business model, thereby potentially extending existing dominance in IaaS markets into quantum computing services;
- technological and contractual lock in arising from a lack of standardisation and proprietary environments. Indeed, ICA sees a risk of vendor lock-in scenarios, where few service providers operating on a global scale could leverage their leading position in cloud services to attract and retain a potentially broad user base, including both consumers and businesses, thus impeding interoperability and reducing switching possibilities;
- patent driven technological pre emption following an unprecedented surge in quantum related patent filings, which may undermine the contestability of future markets by enabling early appropriation of key technological trajectories; and
- early and strategic acquisitions of startups, potentially leading to further concentration and narrowing technological diversity within the quantum computing ecosystem.
Next steps, possible outcomes and implications of the QC inquiry
The QC inquiry proceeds along two parallel tracks: a call for input (closing on 30 April 2026) and the underlying sector inquiry scheduled to conclude on 31 December 2026. At the end of the QC inquiry, the ICA will issue a final report and, depending on the evidence collected, it could potentially (i) make use of the powers established by DL n.104/20235 to impose structural or behavioural measures directly as a result of the inquiry, or (ii) open antitrust investigations under Articles 101 or 102 TFEU and the corresponding provisions of Italian law.
Moreover, insofar as the QC inquiry will identify areas of concerns regarding hyperscalers’ role in cloud‑based “quantum‑as‑a‑service” models, those findings may potentially feed-into the European Commission’s (“EC”) ongoing market investigation into cloud computing.6 The EC’s investigation is assessing whether the current obligations set out under the Digital Markets Act (“DMA”) effectively address practices that may limit contestability or fairness in cloud markets (including obstacles to interoperability and limited or conditioned access to data). The EC expects to publish its final report by May 2027 and may propose updates to the DMA obligations for cloud based on its findings.
For undertakings currently active, or planning to become active, in QC markets, those inquiries send a clear signal. Competition authorities are closely monitoring how quantum ecosystems are built, and antitrust considerations will form an integral part of the regulatory environment as the sector matures.
References
1 European Commission, A Competitiveness Compass for the EU (COM(2025) 30 final, 29 January 2025), https://commission.europa.eu/topics/competitiveness/competitiveness-compass_en.
2 Ibidem.
3 European Commission, A Competitiveness Compass for the EU (Communication) COM(2025) 30 final, Brussels, 29 January 2025, available at: https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/PDF/?uri=CELEX:52025DC0030.
4 By this term, ICA refers to “technology operators that manage Cloud and Data Center infrastructures designed for massive scalability and rapid growth, with highly automated and globally distributed architectures to support the delivery of services to global user audiences”.
5 Decree‑Law No. 104 of 10 August 2023, converted with amendments by Law No. 136 of 9 October 2023, Art. 1(5), available at https://www.normattiva.it/uri-res/N2Ls?urn:nir:stato:decreto.legge:2023-08-10;104.
6 European Commission, Commission launches market investigations on cloud computing services under the Digital Markets Act (Press Release, 18 November 2025), available at: https://digital-markets-act.ec.europa.eu/commission-launches-market-investigations-cloud-computing-services-under-digital-markets-act-2025-11-18_en.
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