Multiple news outlets are reporting that the U.S. Supreme Court may issue its long-anticipated decision on the legality of the Trump administration’s emergency-based tariff program as early as Friday, Jan. 9.
While the Court does not announce decisions in advance, the reporting points to the recent scheduling of an opinion release session at 10 a.m. as a plausible window for a tariff ruling.
The justices will be deciding whether the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) authorizes the imposition of sweeping tariffs on imports from Mexico, Canada, China, and other trading partners. Both the U.S. Court of International Trade and the Federal Circuit have already held that IEEEPA does not permit tariffs.
Why This Decision Matters
If the Supreme Court invalidates the tariffs, the immediate question will be whether refunds are owed and who is positioned to obtain them.
Estimates of potential refunds circulating in news coverage are in the $150 billion to $200 billion range. At the same time, the government has signaled resistance to refunding duties outside of litigation, setting the stage for complex remedial and procedural battles.
Conversely, if the Court upholds the tariffs, the decision would reinforce the government’s ability to rely on emergency powers to impose broad trade measures, reshaping future trade and compliance risk.
Refund Lawsuits Already Pending
As we outlined in our December alert, timing is critical to the issue of entitlement to refunds. Many 2025 entries were scheduled to liquidate beginning mid-December. Once an entry liquidates, refund rights may be lost or become significantly more difficult to pursue.
Against that backdrop, importers have been filing protective lawsuits in the U.S. Court of International Trade, following the approach taken by Costco, to secure individualized judgments and to seek injunctions suspending liquidation while the Supreme Court case is pending. Multiple importer cases have been consolidated before a three-judge CIT panel to address common legal and injunction issues efficiently.
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