Agentic commerce (where autonomous AI acts as a personal online shopper) could significantly change how consumers shop in the future. While the underlying technology, infrastructure, and protocols are still developing, many signs point to continued and significant growth in this area. One McKinsey study predicts that by 2030, the U.S. business-to-consumer (B2C) retail market alone could see up to one trillion dollars in revenue from agentic commerce.
In parallel, following enactment of the GENIUS Act, we have seen increasing exploration of payment stablecoins: digital assets that are designed to be used as a means of payment or settlement. Stablecoins support programmable payments via smart contracts, which allow predefined rules to determine how funds move autonomously, unlike funds movement in traditional payment systems.
Today, consumer adoption of stablecoins remains low. Recent market developments suggest, however, that this could change, and that AI agents will make payments on customers’ behalf using stablecoins as a more “frictionless” and efficient way of moving money. If these assumptions hold true—and AI and stablecoins converge—our U.S. regulatory framework will need to adapt. For agentic commerce to scale, consumers will need to trust their AI agent. Building consumer trust includes, among other things, ensuring that consumers have appropriate redress in the event of unauthorized or fraudulent transactions, along with appropriate data privacy protections. Industry players are already exploring mechanisms, such as the potential reversibility of certain transactions, to strengthen consumer protections and enhance confidence in stablecoin-based payments. These early efforts reinforce the idea that trust will be as important as technical sophistication in determining the trajectory of agentic commerce.
We expect significant investment in agentic commerce infrastructure and stablecoin use cases to continue. In the meantime, industry participants should remain attuned to identifying and addressing the regulatory gaps to ensure that innovation aligns with consumer protection goals. Modernized regulation, industry-led standards, or a coordinated mix of both will be needed to support expected growth.
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