Late Tuesday, the California Air Resources Board (ARB) released draft amendments to the state’s cap and trade regulation, including revisions to the current program in place through 2020, an extension of the program through 2030, and setting the stage for continued emissions reductions under the program through 2050. ARB’s proposed amendments come in the middle of a recent milieu of uncertainty: pending litigation challenging the legality of the existing program, an opinion from Legislative Counsel that ARB lacks authority under AB 32 to continue cap and trade past 2020, unprecedented weak demand at the most recent allowance auction, and legislation to establish a statutory emissions reductions mandate for 2030 still in process this session. With all of these balls in the air, ARB has doubled down and drafted regulations dropping the program’s emissions cap from 334.2 million metric tons (MMT) of CO2e in 2020 to 200.5 MMT in 2030, with major elements of the cap and trade regulation continuing in effect past 2020 to achieve the emissions reductions.
In addition to the extension of the cap and trade program – arguably the big fish of ARB’s proposal – the agency has outlined numerous refinements to the existing program. Certain regulated industries would face direct impacts under the proposed revisions. Other industries face uncertainty in allowance allocations, with ARB proposing to revise the way emissions leakage is assessed.
Industrial sectors affected by the draft amendments:
ARB is proposing adjustments to the auction system and potentially linking California’s program with that of Ontario. Additional limited linkages could come to fruition, including with Washington state for allowance trading and Acre, Brazil for sector-based offsets. The proposed amendments would also make the necessary tweaks to the cap and trade program to allow it to meet California’s federal Clean Power Plan obligations. Aligning with the potential expansion of CAISO and the new EIM market is also addressed, as electricity imports are regulated under the program.
ARB issued a preliminary draft of the proposed amendments on Tuesday. The final draft, for public comment, will be issued August 5, 2016, with comments accepted until September 19, 2016. Two days of hearings by the Board are scheduled for September 22 – 23, 2016.