Welcome to 2024 and our 8th year of publishing Currents!
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[co-author: Schenley Kent]
Solar is Coming, Solar is Here: The Growth of Solar in Coal Country
We reviewed a variety of news stories discussing new solar projects in states – Kentucky, West Virginia, and Pennsylvania – that have traditionally relied heavily on coal and carbon-emitting fuels. The articles reveal lessons that may be learned from these examples.
“The proposal would up Pennsylvania’s renewable energy goals from 8% now to 30% by 2030.”
Why this is important: This article discusses a proposed bill in the Pennsylvania House of Representatives that would increase Pennsylvania's Renewable Energy goals from 8 percent to 30 percent by 2030. The proposed bill also includes updated goals for in-state grid-scale solar, community solar, and rooftop solar.
According to the article, supporters of the bill claim it would help ratepayers save on energy bills and create jobs in wind and solar industries. Those opposing the bill questioned the impact that more renewables would have on the reliability of the grid. What is not discussed in the article is the cost that investments in renewables would likely have on ratepayers in the short term. At this time, however, it is not clear if the bill will move forward with the House evenly split between Democrats and Republicans.
“The use of so-called small modular reactors could provide a steady supply of electricity that’s free of climate pollution to a major carbon removal facility planned in Wyoming, according to Energy Department documents obtained by POLITICO’s E&E News.”
Why this is important: To meet global warming limits, scientists have often theorized some type of carbon capture system will be needed. Wyoming has been working on a proposal for one of four carbon hubs the U.S. government will be supporting and had planned to use a new type of modular reactor being developed by NuScale to power the hub and carbon capture. But, the DOE-sponsored NuScale reactor is now on hold and causing questions on what power the Wyoming carbon capture hub would have to use. To be successful, carbon capture systems need a low- or zero-emission power source. --- Mark E. Heath
“U.S. states and federal government officials wrestle with how to strengthen cybersecurity after the hacking of a municipal water authority in Pennsylvania.”
Why this is important: Ever since the ransomware attack on Colonial Pipeline (May 2021) and a hacker’s attempt to poison public water in Oldsmar, Florida (February 2021), cyberattacks have brought infrastructure security to the forefront of utilities’ radar. With inaction in Congress, a handful of states passed legislation to step up scrutiny of cybersecurity, however, similar legislation has died in several other states. While state legislatures go back-and-forth on legislation, the Biden administration has been developing a rating system that could hold key providers accountable for maintaining a certain level of cyber resilience. A rating system for providers could be a step in the right direction, if the system is implemented correctly. Before publicly releasing a rating, providers that are determined to be on the lower end of the cybersecurity rating system should be permitted the opportunity to implement corrective measures. Otherwise, a publicly distributed low cybersecurity rating could place a hacking target on certain providers. --- Joseph C. Unger
“The bill proposes a change from reducing to just tending towards a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions.”
Why this is important: France has relied on nuclear power for decades. Following the oil embargoes of the 1970s, it invested heavily in nuclear power. Now, there are proposals to put the reliance on nuclear power into French law and state nuclear would be the preferred power source over renewables for future electric power generation. France currently generates 62.6 percent of its electricity (360 billion kwh) from nuclear reactors. That percentage is the highest in the world and three times the amount of nuclear power generated by the United States. Nuclear power plants have generated about 20 percent of U.S. electricity since 1990, with 93 nuclear reactors operating at 54 nuclear power plants in 28 U.S. states, producing 778 billion kilowatthours. China is third in the world with 407 billion kilowatthours produced, which was 5 percent of China’s electrical needs. --- Mark E. Heath
“Through this three-year partnership, Ambit will leverage Gecko’s newly launched AI-powered Cantilever platform that combines data-collecting robots, data integration, analytic tools, and software modules meant to reduce outages.”
Why this is important: American Bituminous Power Grant Town (Ambit), a West Virginia power plant, has partnered with an AI company, Gecko Robotics, to provide data collecting robots, data integration, analytic tools, and software modules over a three-year partnership. According to the article, the AI robots and tools are meant to reduce forced outages at Ambit by more accurately predicting when equipment will fail before it fails, which would allow Ambit to make smarter repairs. Leveraging AI to assist in plant maintenance and management may thus be a way to lower costs to ratepayers if plants can operate more efficiently. With the technology being fairly new, however, it will likely take significant time before the real impacts and potential benefits can be known. --- Steven W. Lee
“Over the next two years, the United States will experience a remarkable acceleration in the energy transition in the electricity sector, according to new figures released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration.”
Why this is important: The U.S. Energy Information Agency predicts a rapid rise in renewable energy this year and next with a corresponding drop in coal-fired electrical generation. EIA believes the growth in wind and solar generation alone will meet the amount of new electricity needed for growth in the U.S. in the next two years. The agency also sees significant growth in battery storage, which is a key to working more renewables into the electric grid. Battery storage totaled 1 GW in 2019, was at 20 GW at end of 2023, and is expected to double to 40 GW by 2026.
EIA is also predicting rapid expansion in utility scale solar power as it projects 79 MWs in new capacity in the next two years. EIA is also predicting solar, wind and hydro electric generation will be two times the power generated by coal, with coal-fired generation declining by 117 MW. EIA projects this will mean an 18 percent drop in coal-fired generation over the next two years. Some projections see 10 percent of U.S. coal-fired plants closing or converting to natural gas as their fuel source by the end of 2023.
These declines are heavily affecting the mix of sources for U.S. electrical needs. EIA data also shows that prior to 2020, the percentage of U.S. coal-fired electric generation was over 20 percent in every month. In 2023, coal-fired generation did not exceed the 20 percent monthly average total in any month. In fact, coal-fired electric power generation only exceeded 20 percent of the generation mix on 23 days in 2023.
These changes have caused EIA to predict steam coal production in the United States in 2024 will drop to its lowest level in 50 years. In 2014, the U.S. mined just over 1 billion tons of coal. EIA now believes after three stable years of U.S. coal production, total U.S. production is likely to fall 26 percent over the next two years to 429 million tons. In Appalachia, production could fall 35 percent in two years to 110 million tons. Since the Great Depression, only 1954 and 1961 had lower U.S. total production numbers.
“The United States reduced emissions of climate-warming greenhouse gasses last year, after two years in which emissions rose.”
Why this is important: This article states that 2023 was the hottest on record, and globally, countries continue emitting greenhouse gasses that are warming the planet. In 2023, the U.S. cut its emissions by nearly 2 percent, despite a growing economy. Under the 2015 International Paris Agreement, the U.S. pledged to cut its emissions by 50-52 percent from its 2005 levels by the end of this decade. To meet the goal, the article notes the U.S. will have to triple its greenhouse gas reduction rate, and while the U.S. has passed some significant climate legislation, such as the Inflation Reduction Act in 2021, the benefits of this legislation have not yet come to fruition in emissions reductions. The upshot per the article is that the U.S. is still far from being on target to meet its goal of curtailing greenhouse gases under the Paris Climate Agreement. --- Schenley Kent
● EIA Energy Statistics
Here is a round-up of the latest statistics concerning the energy industry.
ELECTRICITY
PETROLEUM
NATURAL GAS
COAL
RENEWABLES
