Just as the Atlantic hurricane season reaches its climatological peak, the National Hurricane Center upgraded Hurricane Florence to a Category 4 hurricane with 130 mph winds and is expected to strengthen to 150 mph just before the anticipated landfall Thursday night. “The storm is already 500 miles wide — meaning a large area will be at risk when it nears land.”
Although current computer models expect Florence to make landfall between northern South Carolina and the North Carolina Outer Banks, possible shifts in the storm’s track will likely expand areas of mandatory evacuation orders – which for now are confined to Dare County and Hatteras Island. Keep in mind, whether business interruption coverage will apply for those businesses evacuated due to anticipated damage will depend on the specific policy language. Many policies preclude coverage for mere anticipatory civil authority orders, while others limit coverage to orders arising out of damage within a certain distance of the insured property.
Very warm sea surface temperatures of up to 85 degrees are aiding Florence as it nears the U.S. Atlantic shore. “With each passing flight into the eye of the storm and every new computer model forecast, it has become increasingly unlikely that Florence will turn out to sea and spare the Eastern Seaboard from potentially devastating storm surge, flooding and wind. There’s even some indication that the hurricane will slow or stall out over the Mid-Atlantic later this week, which could lead to a disastrous amount of rain.” Some models suggest Florence, like Texas’ 2017 Hurricane Harvey, could stall and linger after making landfall – resulting in significant and dangerous flooding.
If Hurricane Florence makes landfall along the southeast coast as a Category 3 or higher, it would be an extremely rare event. In fact, since 1851, only 10 major hurricanes have done so, with the most recent in 1996 (Hurricane Fran). Hurricane Hugo made landfall as a Category 4 hurricane in 1989, and there have been no Category 5 hurricanes to make landfall in this region on record.
Notably, a series of dangerous storms are also threatening parts of the United States in the Pacific Ocean, with most of the state of Hawaii under either a tropical storm warning or watch on Monday morning, as Hurricane Olivia approaches the Hawaiian islands with 85 mph winds.
