This spring Outlook is structured in three sections. The first section sets out our view of the economic outlook commencing with a very short summary of recent world economy dynamics, followed by a review of the outlook for global growth and Canadian growth for 2015 to 2017. The second section contains an analysis of the factors which undoubtedly will lead to a slower growth of Canadian incomes over the medium term, 2015 to 2024. The third section analyses likely global trade developments and their implications for Canada. Section four contains a summary and conclusions.

Section I: Global Short-Term Outlook: 2015-2017 - Recent World Economy Dynamics -

Data releases since the publication of our Winter 2015 Economic Outlook last February indicate that in the first quarter of 2015 there was a significant decline in U.S. GDP, a slowdown in China to the lowest growth rate since 2009, and a marked pick-up of growth in the Euro area. The amplitude of the movements, in particular the extent of the weakness in the U.S., clearly took all the analysts by surprise. In the U.S., the second estimate of GDP for the first quarter shows a contraction at an annualized rate of 0.75 percent, following annualized growth of 4.1 percent in the second half of 2014. The stagnation of activity stemmed in good part from temporary factors such as adverse winter weather in the Northeast, port strikes on the west coast, and a front-end loaded drop in drilling activity in the oil sector. It also began to reflect the negative impact of a stronger U.S. dollar on net exports. In China, slower growth was due to relatively durable factors such as an ongoing correction of excess supply in the property market and weaker investment growth. In the Euro area, the acceleration stemmed from the positive effects of lower oil prices on consumption and of a weaker euro on net exports, and the confidence-building effect of a shift to unconventional monetary policy by the ECB.