With inflation continuing to impact the US economy, lenders are focused on the economic impact of the presidential election in November. Lenders’ expectations for the US economy’s performance in the longer term – beyond the next six months – has increased significantly from the prior quarter. Despite that optimistic outlook, however, volatility in borrower performance, and an increase in bankruptcies, is expected to continue until the Fed starts reducing interest rates and the presidential election is decided.

In the Phoenix Management “Lending Climate in America” survey for Q1 2024, the lenders queried identify which macroeconomic headwind concerns them the most, and which actions their customers have planned in the next six to twelve months. The survey also reveals whether lenders’ financial institutions plan to tighten, relax, or maintain their loan structures, how much growth their customers expect in 2024, and which industries are likely to experience the most volatility in the upcoming six months.