On Tuesday, September 22, 2020, L.A. County’s COVID-19 case rate and test positivity rate fell below the state’s threshold for Tier 2 of the Governor’s Blueprint framework for reopening. More specifically, the County’s “adjusted” case rate per 100,000 residents fell to 7, within the requirement to move to Tier 2. If this rate holds, the County could potentially move to Tier 2 on Tuesday, October 6, 2020.

L.A. County Public Health Director Dr. Barbara Ferrer and Supervisor Kathryn Barger indicated that the County will re-evaluate a potential reopening at the end of September.

Signs of a Potential Surge

While regional metrics remain relatively low compared with those in the past, last week County officials warned of a “troubling trend” in the days following Labor Day weekend. On Monday, September 21, 2020, Ferrer noted that the County’s case rate is hovering around 1,000 per day on average, and that the County experienced an increase in the number of new cases for four days during the previous week. In addition, the County continues to evaluate data to determine whether it will see a surge in the number of cases following the Labor Day weekend.

Notably, last week L.A. County’s transmission rate rose to 1.02, meaning that on average, every infected Angelino is likely to infect more than one additional person. This is the first time the County’s R rate has been above 1.0 since July.