Rates Continue to Decelerate in Many Areas: Q1 2022 Commercial Market Update

Woodruff Sawyer
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Market stabilization is the theme as we closed the first quarter of 2022. We monitored the first quarter earnings releases of commercial insurers carefully to detect trends. All the top commercial lines insurers reported rate deceleration, which many described as rate moderation. What this means is that the insurers are still reporting single-digit rate increases across their commercial lines business, but the level of the rate increase is either unchanged from the last quarter or slightly lower. The big macroeconomic event in the first quarter was Russia’s invasion of the Ukraine. Since many commercial lines policies include war exclusions, most insurers reported minimal losses and minimal expected ongoing impact. At the onset of the invasion, Swiss Re, one of the industry’s top reinsurers estimated industry losses arising from the invasion to be in the $10 billion–$20 billion range. Swiss Re recently updated this guidance to report that it believes industry losses will be at the lower end of this range.

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