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Election Analysis
The 2023 General Assembly Elections bring the largest single-year turnover in the General Assembly during modern times. All 140 seats in the Virginia legislature were on the ballot but a handful of competitive seats decided the majority in each chamber.
After winning 21 seats in the Senate and 51 seats in the House, with one race undecided in each chamber, the Democrats now hold the majority in the General Assembly. Democrats had previously controlled the legislature as well as the executive branch but lost their majority in the House and Governor’s mansion following the 2021 election. This will be the first time in over two and a half decades where Virginia will have a Republican governor and a Democrat controlled General Assembly.
Two Races Still Too Close to Call
At this time, the races for House District 82 and Senate District 24 have not been called. In House District 82, Democrat Kimberly Pope Adams is only 173 votes behind Republican incumbent Kim Taylor. In Senate District 24, Democratic incumbent Monty Mason is roughly 1,000 votes behind his Republican opponent, Danny Diggs. Virginia allows for a recount in close races. A candidate may request a recount if the difference in vote margins between the requesting candidate and winning candidate is less than or equal to 1% of the votes cast.
Update- 11/8, 6:00pm: The closely watched race for Virginia’s 24th State Senate District has come to an end with Republican Danny Diggs being declared winner, after defeating incumbent Senator Monty Mason. The district which encompasses York County, the City of Williamsburg, the City of Poquoson, part of the City of Newport News, and part of James City County was too close to call as of Tuesday night and into the Wednesday afternoon. With final results counted, Diggs received 51% of the overall vote in the district, compared to Mason’s 48%. Both candidates surpassed $5 million in total funds raised, making it the most expensive Senate race in Hampton Roads. The battle for this district was one of the state’s most highly anticipated races of this election cycle.
New and Familiar Faces
The 2024 session will bring one of the largest classes of freshmen members in recent history. The House will have 35 new members from all areas of the Commonwealth, including Jed Arnold who won a special election earlier this year. Should Kimberly Pope Adams defeat incumbent Kim Taylor, the House will have a total of 36 new members. The Senate will have 17 new Senators.
Eight sitting members of the House of Delegates are joining the upper chamber. These include Emily Brewer, Chris Head, Suhas Subramanyam, Tara Durant, Danica Roem, John McGuire, Angelia Williams Graves, and Schuyler VanValkenburg.
Additionally, several former legislators are returning to the General Assembly. Josh Cole and Alex Askew are returning to the House after being unseated in 2021, while Nadarius Clark will return after resigning his House seat earlier this year to run in a different district. Glen Sturtevant is returning to the Senate after losing to Ghazala Hashmi in 2019. Former congressman and state senator Tom Garrett will represent House District 56. Lashrecse Aird, who was defeated in her 2021 campaign for the House, and Jennifer Carroll Foy, who resigned from the House to campaign for Governor in 2020, will both return to the legislature in the Senate.
Leadership Changes
With the Democrats taking control of the House of Delegates and numerous retirements in the Senate, committee membership and leadership will drastically change for the 2024 session. It is anticipated some previous committee chairs will return to leadership, such as Delegate Luke Torian as Chair of House Appropriations. The expected speaker will be Democrat and former Minority Leader Don Scott.
In the Senate, six out of eleven committee chairs retired and some of the most influential committees, such as Commerce and Labor and Finance and Appropriation, have less than half of the membership returning in 2024.
State Corporation Commission Appointments
Since 2021, the General Assembly has been in a deadlock over appointments to the State Corporation Commission, an independent agency that oversees business and economic interests, including the regulation of utilities. Two out of the three SCC Commissioner positions remain vacant. Republicans and Democrats have been at odds over the appointments and failed to fill the vacancies. With the Democrats poised to take the majority in both the House and Senate, they are likely to fill both vacancies quickly during the 2024 session. The potential for two Democratic appointed commissioners could significantly impact utilities, insurance, and other industries regulated by the agency.
Richmond Casino Referendum
In addition to the General Assembly seats, voters in the City of Richmond also decided whether the new Richmond Grand Resort Casino would be coming to the city. In 2021, voters rejected a very similar proposal by a narrow margin. Despite being outspent $2.6 million to $231,000, voters split 51% to 49% against a casino, a margin of less than 1,500 votes. Western precincts in the City voted largely against the proposal, while most of the support centered in the eastern and southern precincts.
Last night, the Richmond gaming referenda on the ballot failed to pass. While precincts surrounding the proposed site were in support, 61.6% of city residents voted against the project. Richmond is the only one of the five authorized localities that failed to pass a referendum to allow a casino. Additionally, another local gaming referenda in Northern Virginia also failed to pass.
Election Night Coverage
11:05 Update
As we come close to the end of Election Day in Virginia, some of the most competitive races are still too close to call. Many districts have a large number of early votes that have yet to be counted. At this time, some sources are projecting that Democrats will hold the majority in the Senate and have at least 50 seats in the House of Delegates. Stay tuned tomorrow to learn more about the outcome of one of the Commonwealth’s most competitive elections in recent history.
11:00pm Update
Democrat Schuyler VanValkenburg is the apparent winner of Senate District 16 after defeating incumbent Senator Siobhan Dunnavant for the seat in Henrico County. VanValkenburg, who has been a member of the House of Delegates since 2018, won 54% of the vote against Dunnavant, after raising almost equal amounts during the campaign trail. Abortion issues took center stage in this race, with VanValkenburg campaigning as pro-choice and Dunnavant, a practicing OB GYN, advocating to allow abortion to be legal up to 15 weeks with reasonable exceptions after 15 weeks.
10:45pm Update
Republican Tara Durant is the likely winner of the competitive 27th State Senate District, encompassing the City of Fredericksburg, part of Stafford County, and part of Spotsylvania County with 48% of the vote. Durant previously served in the House of Delegates. Her opponent, Joel Griffin, received 46% of the vote. Monica Gary, a third party candidate received 4.6% of the vote. Durant’s district was seen as one of the key districts for Republicans in the pursuit of retaking the majority in the Senate.
Republican Emily Brewer has likely won the seat for Virginia’s competitive 17th State Senate District, encompassing the City of Suffolk, Isle of Wight County, Southampton County, Brunswick County, Greensville County, Franklin City, Emporia City, part of the City of Portsmouth, part of Dinwiddie County, and part of the City of Chesapeake. Brewer received nearly 53% of the overall vote in the district. She outraised her opponent, Democratic candidate and United States Army Veteran Clint Jenkins, bringing in $2.3 million compared to his $1.7 million. Both Brewer and Jenkins served in the House of Delegates before running for Senate. Brewer was endorsed by Governor Glenn Youngkin.
10:30pm Update
Democrat Russet Perry is the likely winner of Senate District 31, which stretches between parts of Loudoun and Fauquier Counties. Perry, an attorney and a former prosecutor and CIA officer defeated Republican Juan Pablo Segura, an entrepreneur and co-founder of digital maternal healthcare company on a margin of nearly 53% to his 47% with over 40,000 votes overall being cast. The race between Perry and Segura was considered one of the most expensive in the Commonwealth, with Perry raising more money than any other candidate in the state, totaling over $6 million in overall contributions.
Democrat Joshua Cole appears to have won the race for House District 65. Cole, who previously served one term in the House of Delegates from 2020-2022, was challenged by Marine Corps veteran and law enforcement officer, Lee Peters, for the competitive seat comprised of Fredericksburg City and parts of Stafford and Spotsylvania Counties. Cole defeated Peters on a margin of 53% to 47%.
Republican Baxter Ennis seems to have secured a win in Virginia’s competitive 57th House District, encompassing part of the City of Chesapeake and part of the City of Suffolk. Ennis, a retired United States Army veteran, defeated Karen Jenkins, a mental health professional with Isle of Wight Public Schools with just over 51% of the vote.
9:45pm Update
Republican Ian Lovejoy has won the seat for Virginia’s competitive 22nd House of Delegates District. House District 22 was one of the two competitive districts located in Prince William County that Democrats had hoped to flip, however, Lovejoy received 52.6% of the vote. Lovejoy was outraised by his opponent, Democratic candidate and attorney Travis Nembhard, bringing in $1.7 million compared to Nembhard’s $2.1 million. While both candidates campaigned heavily on data centers, Lovejoy’s focus on taxes may have mobilized his voter base.
9:30pm Update
Precincts surrounding the proposed casino site have reported results, but their overwhelming support for the casino was insufficient to carry the vote. The referendum for a casino in Richmond has failed for a second time.
It appears Democrat Josh Thomas has won the House District 21 seat, after securing 51.5% of the vote against Republican John Stirrup. House District 21 was one of two competitive districts located in Prince William County that Democrats were hoping to gain to flip the House of Delegates. Nearly 66% of the early mail in votes were cast for Thomas as well as over 51% of the early in person votes. His opponent, John Stirrup campaigned on improving public safety, while Thomas focused on women’s rights.
9:00pm Update
The polls in Virginia have been closed for two hours and the most competitive races are still too close to call. For those monitoring the Richmond casino referendum, the current results as of 9:00pm have a large majority voting against the referendum. However, many precincts around the proposed site have yet to report results.
Competitive Race Results
As previously mentioned, despite all 140 seats of the General Assembly being on the ballot, only a few House and Senate districts were considered competitive. Here are the results for the districts that were identified as most competitive.
An asterisk* indicates candidate is an incumbent.
Race Outcomes
House Election Results
Senate Election Results
