Analysis by Julie Dautermann, Competitive Intelligence Analyst

This update helps automotive suppliers inform their legal and operational decisions to help address challenges and opportunities. 

Key Developments

• The fourth installment of Foley & Lardner LLP’s Auto Trends 2023 Series provides context on how certain IP license structures can proactively mitigate supply chain risks.  Click HERE to subscribe to the series.
• U.S. new light-vehicle sales reached 1.37 million units in March, representing a SAAR of 14.8 million units and a 8.6% increase year-over-year, according to preliminary estimates from LMC Automotive.
• A number of automakers reported double-digit percentage increases for first-quarter U.S. new light-vehicle sales, including GM, Hyundai, Nissan, Ford and Tesla.
• The average interest rate on loans for new vehicles approached 9% in March, compared to less than 6% one year ago, according to data from Cox Automotive excerpted in Bloomberg.
• Treasury Department guidance pertaining to electric vehicle mineral and battery component sourcing requirements is expected to reduce the number of EVs eligible for tax credits provided through the Inflation Reduction Act in the near-term, according to commentary from the Alliance for Automotive Innovation. A list of tax-credit-eligible EVs will be posted to FuelEconomy.gov on April 18.
• Foley & Lardner shared a number of key strategies to mitigate the risk of illegal child labor by vendors in the supply chain.
• Foley Forward: Trends 2023 includes insights into likely disruptors and opportunities for manufacturers this year. Click HERE to access the full series.
• South Korea’s LG Energy Solution will invest $5.5 billion to build a new battery manufacturing complex in Arizona.
• The Alliance for Automotive Innovation estimates nearly 935,000 battery electric (BEV), plug-in hybrid electric (PHEV), and fuel cell electric (FCEV) vehicles were sold in the U.S. in 2022, representing a market share of 7% and an increase of 44% from 2021.The report indicates there were 91 models available as of Q4 2022, comprised of 47 BEV models, 42 PHEV models and 2 FCEV models.
• The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency approved California Clean Air Act waivers allowing the state to pursue regulations that will require heavy-duty truck manufacturers to sell a rising number of zero-emission vehicles in the coming years.

OEMs/Suppliers

• Cummins will invest more than $1 billion across its U.S. engine manufacturing network to support the development of fuel agnostic engine platforms intended to run on low carbon fuels including natural gas, diesel and hydrogen.
• BorgWarner will invest $20.6 million across multiple sites in metro Detroit in order to support increased production in areas including EV chargers and battery packs.
• The Detroit News reports Magna is considering investing up to $100 million in a new seating plant in Auburn Hills, Michigan.

Electric Vehicles and Low Emissions Technology

• The combined category of battery electric and hybrid electric vehicles reached 4.7% of domestic auto sales in Mexico in 2022, according to data from the Auto Industry Association (AMIA) excerpted in Reuters. The Mexican government intends for zero-emission vehicles to represent half of all cars sold in the country by the end of the decade.
• The Wall Street Journal reports certain types of electrical steel needed in applications including electric vehicle motors are expected to experience supply constraints.
• S&P Global Commodity Insights estimates lithium iron phosphate (LiFePO4 or LFP) batteries could reach nearly 50% of global demand for electric vehicle batteries by 2027.The growth is attributed to efforts to reduce the use of cobalt and lower the costs of raw materials.
• As part of guidance for its new reporting structure, Ford projected a 2023 loss of $3 billion for its Model e electric vehicle business unit, but profitability is expected to be reached beginning in 2026.The automaker intends to manufacture two million EVs annually by 2026, including a production target of 500,000 electric pickup trucks at its upcoming facility in Tennessee.
• GM expects power-grid security to increase in importance as the industry shifts to vehicle electrification and automakers are involved in establishing access to infrastructure.
• A number of battery makers are exploring the potential for sodium-ion batteries to power future electric vehicles. The technology currently has higher costs and lower energy density compared to other technologies, but its advantages include performance at low temperatures, a diverse distribution of raw materials, and reduced potential for flammability.
• Lithium-ion battery solutions provider Microvast Holdings will invest $504 million to establish its first polyaramid separator plant in Hopkinsville, Kentucky.
• Ford will partner with PT Vale Indonesia and China’s Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt to build a $4.5 billion nickel processing plant in Indonesia, and commercial operations are expected to begin in 2026.
• On March 28, the U.S. and Japan reached a trade agreement intended to strengthen supply chains of critical minerals used in electric vehicle battery production.

Automated, Autonomous or Connected Vehicles Technologies

• PwC estimates automotive software is a $20 billion market, with a compound annual growth rate of 13%.Three trends contributing to the growth of the automotive software market are vehicle connectivity, cybersecurity and the emergence of new business models.
• GM plans to shift away from Apple CarPlay and Android Auto in its future electric vehicles, and will instead use navigation and infotainment systems developed with Alphabet’s Google.

Market Trends and Regulatory

• Over two dozen state attorneys general urged Congress to pass “expansive” right-to-repair legislation pertaining to automobiles, agricultural equipment and consumer electronics.
• The U.S. Transportation Department announced $94.8 million in grants to 59 innovative mobility projects in 33 states. This represents the first round of funding from the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law’s Strengthening Mobility and Revolutionizing Transportation (SMART) Grants Program, which will allocate $500 million over five years to applications that include connected vehicles, smart traffic signals, delivery logistics and automation.
• Germany dropped its opposition to a European Union proposal which would require new passenger cars sold in the bloc to be zero-emission vehicles beginning in 2035, following a plan to incorporate provisions for vehicles running solely on e-fuels.

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