SOFR Surge Event: What Just Happened?!

Shearman & Sterling LLP

SOFR Surge: Libor Stable: What Just Happened?!

“Probable impossibilities are to be preferred to improbable possibilities.”
–Aristotle

SOFR – the secured overnight funding rate in USD – is a rate published by the New York federal reserve based upon secured overnight transactions in the repo market. It is of increasing importance, since it has been regarded by many market participants as the basis for the likely successor to U.S. dollar LIBOR, a long-standing benchmark which is being phased out at the behest of the UK’s Financial Conduct Authority.

The confluence of a number of events has exposed insufficient elasticity in the USD overnight cash repo market. Contributing to the stress on the system is an upcoming corporate tax payment date, which pulled cash out of the money market system, whilst at around the same time $115 billion of investment grade debt was being issued and traded (based on data for the first half of September). The secondary market trading volumes of this newly issued investment-grade paper increased inventories at broker dealers; who, in turn, rely on the repo market to fund those volumes. In addition, $60 billion of Treasury bond maturities negatively impacted available cash. All these events contributed to a cash crunch on September 17, 2019, that we refer to here as the “SOFR Surge Event”, in which the SOFR rate increased by 282 basis points, compared with the previous day. As of the time of this publication, the surge is not expected to last more than one day (albeit an uptick in SOFR may temporarily linger, given its causes (which are of a temporary nature)).

Backward-looking cumulative 1 month SOFR has been discussed as a new USD rate benchmark for the derivatives markets to replace the floating rate for forward looking 1 month USD LIBOR. Since this is based upon actual SOFR overnight rate data, this rate will continue to capture and incorporate the effects of the SOFR Surge Event for the next month. Given the 282 basis points of surge and assuming this is very short-lived (i.e., the event lasts one day), the increase to the 1-month SOFR for each of the 30 days following the SOFR Surge Event will be approximately 10 basis points. This is not just material in the world of interest rate pricing, but of huge economic impact. For those who are interest rate traders, this SOFR Surge Event presents a material change for risk management purposes and complicates managing a complex book of interest rate positions. The risk of future such events will also need to be taken into account by banks when agreeing on rates with their counterparties.

In contrast to backward-looking SOFR, LIBOR is forward looking. For example, the 1 month USD LIBOR setting would take account of changes that LIBOR submitting banks foresee in the month ahead. So the 1 month rate would include the average effect of any expected month end uplifts to interest rates. Unexpected/flash events that are anomalous and very short lived would not usually be factored into LIBOR, because forward expectations should exclude unexpected and (with significant exceptions) also exclude historical outcomes. This is an important stabilizing component of LIBOR that is often overlooked, but is underscored by this recent SOFR Surge Event.

There are some interesting implications.

First, in relation to the proposed transition from LIBOR to fallback or alternative rates (meaning, in the USD market, SOFR-based rates). The proposal at the moment, which has wide market support, is ultimately for a SOFR-based rate (likely a cumulative overnight backward-looking rate, as described above) plus a fixed spread, to replace the relevant LIBOR rate setting. The fixed spread would be determined as the average difference between SOFR and LIBOR over a historic period. If the transition date had, for example, been declared and set to be the end of September 2019, the fixed spread as between SOFR and LIBOR would be calculated over a period including the SOFR Surge Event and the entire USD LIBOR floating rate market would suffer an artificially increased fixed spread as a result. An excess 10bps (if the fixed rate averaging period is a month) rippling across trillions of dollars of assets and liabilities is a matter of grave concern and potentially has systemic implications.

Secondly, in relation to the robustness of the SOFR rate itself, the SOFR Surge Event raises the troubling reminder that the cash market stabilization role played by the repo market, through the Fed lending window, is ultimately managed through discretionary mechanisms controlled by the Fed. In this instance, the Fed, briefly, was unable to intervene to stabilize the overnight rate, with the result that there was a surge in the SOFR rate. The corollary is that SOFR is, in large measure, determined from input data that is dependent on Fed activity and the ability and effectiveness of the Fed’s market stabilization activity, and that SOFR may be affected by one-off economic events and greater levels of volatility than have been observed with LIBOR. It is therefore questionable whether SOFR can be truly characterized as a market rate or is yet suitable to be used on a market-wide basis. It is a government-managed rate that is subject to discretionary adjustment by the Fed. The argument that a replacement rate (for LIBOR) should be based in transparent actual transactions is still valid. SOFR was calculated in accordance with its published formula based on actual transactions. However, its utility as a market replacement rate is weaker than expected. In contrast, the USD LIBOR market was stable during the occurrence of the SOFR Surge Event. The broader cash market was also stable. It is hard to balance the cash market stabilization role played by the Fed through the overnight repo market with the goal of creating a market replacement rate. Suffice to say that any equivalent discretion afforded to a non-government agency would instantly disqualify the resulting rate from being sufficiently robust and not subject to manipulation or unanticipated external shocks.

Thirdly, the SOFR Surge Event not being reflected in LIBOR outputs on September 17 shows that SOFR is “almost, but not entirely, unlike”[1] LIBOR. The transactions which qualify as inputs for LIBOR settings are not the same as those that underpin SOFR. The former are unsecured, while the latter are secured; LIBOR is forward-looking, whilst SOFR is backward-looking. The ripple effect of the SOFR Surge Event on LIBOR qualifying transactions is not clear, but we can infer (given the apparent stability of LIBOR) that (1) the SOFR Surge Event was possibly too short in duration to impact interbank lending (i.e., a “flash” event), (2) a significant number of LIBOR submitting banks were not meaningfully exposed to the SOFR Surge Event and therefore were able to continue orderly interbank lending or (3) given the forward looking nature of LIBOR, the LIBOR submitting banks determined that the SOFR Surge Event was anomalous and one-off and therefore not relevant to the forward-looking LIBOR market.

As transitions from LIBOR to other rates are rolled out by financial institutions to their contracts, such as derivatives, lending agreements, mortgages, securities and so on, it will be necessary for them to explain what the change to customers will be from the new rates. As a practical matter, it will likely be an incrementally harder sell to customers to disclose that changing the rate to SOFR will expose customers to the risk of more extreme volatility and off-market pricing, but this will be necessary in light of the SOFR Surge Event. As LIBOR risk factors are a necessity and common practice in the debt capital markets (i.e., for bonds and other securities), these risk factors will need to evolve to take account of the additional risks relating to the SOFR Surge Event.

A significant difficulty with any contemplated transition from LIBOR to SOFR is that insufficient time has been given to market participants to observe how LIBOR and SOFR compare over a period that includes time to capture events such as the SOFR Surge Event, as well as more significant market events, such as downturns in the economic cycle, periods of heightened sovereign risk, periods of significant change to asset prices or major global conflicts. As a result, the risk exists that neither financial institutions nor customers will be able to readily develop sophisticated hedging products that allow the differences between SOFR and LIBOR to be effectively and cost efficiently managed.

All this raises questions as to whether the markets and the regulators have sufficiently thought through the appropriateness and benefits of adopting SOFR in place of LIBOR as the leading USD floating rate benchmark and the risks it poses to the cash and derivatives markets, and long term debt capital markets, as a fall back for LIBOR.

Footnotes

[1] See Douglas Adams, Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy, on encountering tea from a Nutri-Matic machine.

[View source.]

Written by:

Shearman & Sterling LLP
Contact
more
less

Shearman & Sterling LLP on:

Readers' Choice 2017
Reporters on Deadline

"My best business intelligence, in one easy email…"

Your first step to building a free, personalized, morning email brief covering pertinent authors and topics on JD Supra:
*By using the service, you signify your acceptance of JD Supra's Privacy Policy.
Custom Email Digest
- hide

JD Supra Privacy Policy

Updated: May 25, 2018:

JD Supra is a legal publishing service that connects experts and their content with broader audiences of professionals, journalists and associations.

This Privacy Policy describes how JD Supra, LLC ("JD Supra" or "we," "us," or "our") collects, uses and shares personal data collected from visitors to our website (located at www.jdsupra.com) (our "Website") who view only publicly-available content as well as subscribers to our services (such as our email digests or author tools)(our "Services"). By using our Website and registering for one of our Services, you are agreeing to the terms of this Privacy Policy.

Please note that if you subscribe to one of our Services, you can make choices about how we collect, use and share your information through our Privacy Center under the "My Account" dashboard (available if you are logged into your JD Supra account).

Collection of Information

Registration Information. When you register with JD Supra for our Website and Services, either as an author or as a subscriber, you will be asked to provide identifying information to create your JD Supra account ("Registration Data"), such as your:

  • Email
  • First Name
  • Last Name
  • Company Name
  • Company Industry
  • Title
  • Country

Other Information: We also collect other information you may voluntarily provide. This may include content you provide for publication. We may also receive your communications with others through our Website and Services (such as contacting an author through our Website) or communications directly with us (such as through email, feedback or other forms or social media). If you are a subscribed user, we will also collect your user preferences, such as the types of articles you would like to read.

Information from third parties (such as, from your employer or LinkedIn): We may also receive information about you from third party sources. For example, your employer may provide your information to us, such as in connection with an article submitted by your employer for publication. If you choose to use LinkedIn to subscribe to our Website and Services, we also collect information related to your LinkedIn account and profile.

Your interactions with our Website and Services: As is true of most websites, we gather certain information automatically. This information includes IP addresses, browser type, Internet service provider (ISP), referring/exit pages, operating system, date/time stamp and clickstream data. We use this information to analyze trends, to administer the Website and our Services, to improve the content and performance of our Website and Services, and to track users' movements around the site. We may also link this automatically-collected data to personal information, for example, to inform authors about who has read their articles. Some of this data is collected through information sent by your web browser. We also use cookies and other tracking technologies to collect this information. To learn more about cookies and other tracking technologies that JD Supra may use on our Website and Services please see our "Cookies Guide" page.

How do we use this information?

We use the information and data we collect principally in order to provide our Website and Services. More specifically, we may use your personal information to:

  • Operate our Website and Services and publish content;
  • Distribute content to you in accordance with your preferences as well as to provide other notifications to you (for example, updates about our policies and terms);
  • Measure readership and usage of the Website and Services;
  • Communicate with you regarding your questions and requests;
  • Authenticate users and to provide for the safety and security of our Website and Services;
  • Conduct research and similar activities to improve our Website and Services; and
  • Comply with our legal and regulatory responsibilities and to enforce our rights.

How is your information shared?

  • Content and other public information (such as an author profile) is shared on our Website and Services, including via email digests and social media feeds, and is accessible to the general public.
  • If you choose to use our Website and Services to communicate directly with a company or individual, such communication may be shared accordingly.
  • Readership information is provided to publishing law firms and authors of content to give them insight into their readership and to help them to improve their content.
  • Our Website may offer you the opportunity to share information through our Website, such as through Facebook's "Like" or Twitter's "Tweet" button. We offer this functionality to help generate interest in our Website and content and to permit you to recommend content to your contacts. You should be aware that sharing through such functionality may result in information being collected by the applicable social media network and possibly being made publicly available (for example, through a search engine). Any such information collection would be subject to such third party social media network's privacy policy.
  • Your information may also be shared to parties who support our business, such as professional advisors as well as web-hosting providers, analytics providers and other information technology providers.
  • Any court, governmental authority, law enforcement agency or other third party where we believe disclosure is necessary to comply with a legal or regulatory obligation, or otherwise to protect our rights, the rights of any third party or individuals' personal safety, or to detect, prevent, or otherwise address fraud, security or safety issues.
  • To our affiliated entities and in connection with the sale, assignment or other transfer of our company or our business.

How We Protect Your Information

JD Supra takes reasonable and appropriate precautions to insure that user information is protected from loss, misuse and unauthorized access, disclosure, alteration and destruction. We restrict access to user information to those individuals who reasonably need access to perform their job functions, such as our third party email service, customer service personnel and technical staff. You should keep in mind that no Internet transmission is ever 100% secure or error-free. Where you use log-in credentials (usernames, passwords) on our Website, please remember that it is your responsibility to safeguard them. If you believe that your log-in credentials have been compromised, please contact us at privacy@jdsupra.com.

Children's Information

Our Website and Services are not directed at children under the age of 16 and we do not knowingly collect personal information from children under the age of 16 through our Website and/or Services. If you have reason to believe that a child under the age of 16 has provided personal information to us, please contact us, and we will endeavor to delete that information from our databases.

Links to Other Websites

Our Website and Services may contain links to other websites. The operators of such other websites may collect information about you, including through cookies or other technologies. If you are using our Website or Services and click a link to another site, you will leave our Website and this Policy will not apply to your use of and activity on those other sites. We encourage you to read the legal notices posted on those sites, including their privacy policies. We are not responsible for the data collection and use practices of such other sites. This Policy applies solely to the information collected in connection with your use of our Website and Services and does not apply to any practices conducted offline or in connection with any other websites.

Information for EU and Swiss Residents

JD Supra's principal place of business is in the United States. By subscribing to our website, you expressly consent to your information being processed in the United States.

  • Our Legal Basis for Processing: Generally, we rely on our legitimate interests in order to process your personal information. For example, we rely on this legal ground if we use your personal information to manage your Registration Data and administer our relationship with you; to deliver our Website and Services; understand and improve our Website and Services; report reader analytics to our authors; to personalize your experience on our Website and Services; and where necessary to protect or defend our or another's rights or property, or to detect, prevent, or otherwise address fraud, security, safety or privacy issues. Please see Article 6(1)(f) of the E.U. General Data Protection Regulation ("GDPR") In addition, there may be other situations where other grounds for processing may exist, such as where processing is a result of legal requirements (GDPR Article 6(1)(c)) or for reasons of public interest (GDPR Article 6(1)(e)). Please see the "Your Rights" section of this Privacy Policy immediately below for more information about how you may request that we limit or refrain from processing your personal information.
  • Your Rights
    • Right of Access/Portability: You can ask to review details about the information we hold about you and how that information has been used and disclosed. Note that we may request to verify your identification before fulfilling your request. You can also request that your personal information is provided to you in a commonly used electronic format so that you can share it with other organizations.
    • Right to Correct Information: You may ask that we make corrections to any information we hold, if you believe such correction to be necessary.
    • Right to Restrict Our Processing or Erasure of Information: You also have the right in certain circumstances to ask us to restrict processing of your personal information or to erase your personal information. Where you have consented to our use of your personal information, you can withdraw your consent at any time.

You can make a request to exercise any of these rights by emailing us at privacy@jdsupra.com or by writing to us at:

Privacy Officer
JD Supra, LLC
10 Liberty Ship Way, Suite 300
Sausalito, California 94965

You can also manage your profile and subscriptions through our Privacy Center under the "My Account" dashboard.

We will make all practical efforts to respect your wishes. There may be times, however, where we are not able to fulfill your request, for example, if applicable law prohibits our compliance. Please note that JD Supra does not use "automatic decision making" or "profiling" as those terms are defined in the GDPR.

  • Timeframe for retaining your personal information: We will retain your personal information in a form that identifies you only for as long as it serves the purpose(s) for which it was initially collected as stated in this Privacy Policy, or subsequently authorized. We may continue processing your personal information for longer periods, but only for the time and to the extent such processing reasonably serves the purposes of archiving in the public interest, journalism, literature and art, scientific or historical research and statistical analysis, and subject to the protection of this Privacy Policy. For example, if you are an author, your personal information may continue to be published in connection with your article indefinitely. When we have no ongoing legitimate business need to process your personal information, we will either delete or anonymize it, or, if this is not possible (for example, because your personal information has been stored in backup archives), then we will securely store your personal information and isolate it from any further processing until deletion is possible.
  • Onward Transfer to Third Parties: As noted in the "How We Share Your Data" Section above, JD Supra may share your information with third parties. When JD Supra discloses your personal information to third parties, we have ensured that such third parties have either certified under the EU-U.S. or Swiss Privacy Shield Framework and will process all personal data received from EU member states/Switzerland in reliance on the applicable Privacy Shield Framework or that they have been subjected to strict contractual provisions in their contract with us to guarantee an adequate level of data protection for your data.

California Privacy Rights

Pursuant to Section 1798.83 of the California Civil Code, our customers who are California residents have the right to request certain information regarding our disclosure of personal information to third parties for their direct marketing purposes.

You can make a request for this information by emailing us at privacy@jdsupra.com or by writing to us at:

Privacy Officer
JD Supra, LLC
10 Liberty Ship Way, Suite 300
Sausalito, California 94965

Some browsers have incorporated a Do Not Track (DNT) feature. These features, when turned on, send a signal that you prefer that the website you are visiting not collect and use data regarding your online searching and browsing activities. As there is not yet a common understanding on how to interpret the DNT signal, we currently do not respond to DNT signals on our site.

Access/Correct/Update/Delete Personal Information

For non-EU/Swiss residents, if you would like to know what personal information we have about you, you can send an e-mail to privacy@jdsupra.com. We will be in contact with you (by mail or otherwise) to verify your identity and provide you the information you request. We will respond within 30 days to your request for access to your personal information. In some cases, we may not be able to remove your personal information, in which case we will let you know if we are unable to do so and why. If you would like to correct or update your personal information, you can manage your profile and subscriptions through our Privacy Center under the "My Account" dashboard. If you would like to delete your account or remove your information from our Website and Services, send an e-mail to privacy@jdsupra.com.

Changes in Our Privacy Policy

We reserve the right to change this Privacy Policy at any time. Please refer to the date at the top of this page to determine when this Policy was last revised. Any changes to our Privacy Policy will become effective upon posting of the revised policy on the Website. By continuing to use our Website and Services following such changes, you will be deemed to have agreed to such changes.

Contacting JD Supra

If you have any questions about this Privacy Policy, the practices of this site, your dealings with our Website or Services, or if you would like to change any of the information you have provided to us, please contact us at: privacy@jdsupra.com.

JD Supra Cookie Guide

As with many websites, JD Supra's website (located at www.jdsupra.com) (our "Website") and our services (such as our email article digests)(our "Services") use a standard technology called a "cookie" and other similar technologies (such as, pixels and web beacons), which are small data files that are transferred to your computer when you use our Website and Services. These technologies automatically identify your browser whenever you interact with our Website and Services.

How We Use Cookies and Other Tracking Technologies

We use cookies and other tracking technologies to:

  1. Improve the user experience on our Website and Services;
  2. Store the authorization token that users receive when they login to the private areas of our Website. This token is specific to a user's login session and requires a valid username and password to obtain. It is required to access the user's profile information, subscriptions, and analytics;
  3. Track anonymous site usage; and
  4. Permit connectivity with social media networks to permit content sharing.

There are different types of cookies and other technologies used our Website, notably:

  • "Session cookies" - These cookies only last as long as your online session, and disappear from your computer or device when you close your browser (like Internet Explorer, Google Chrome or Safari).
  • "Persistent cookies" - These cookies stay on your computer or device after your browser has been closed and last for a time specified in the cookie. We use persistent cookies when we need to know who you are for more than one browsing session. For example, we use them to remember your preferences for the next time you visit.
  • "Web Beacons/Pixels" - Some of our web pages and emails may also contain small electronic images known as web beacons, clear GIFs or single-pixel GIFs. These images are placed on a web page or email and typically work in conjunction with cookies to collect data. We use these images to identify our users and user behavior, such as counting the number of users who have visited a web page or acted upon one of our email digests.

JD Supra Cookies. We place our own cookies on your computer to track certain information about you while you are using our Website and Services. For example, we place a session cookie on your computer each time you visit our Website. We use these cookies to allow you to log-in to your subscriber account. In addition, through these cookies we are able to collect information about how you use the Website, including what browser you may be using, your IP address, and the URL address you came from upon visiting our Website and the URL you next visit (even if those URLs are not on our Website). We also utilize email web beacons to monitor whether our emails are being delivered and read. We also use these tools to help deliver reader analytics to our authors to give them insight into their readership and help them to improve their content, so that it is most useful for our users.

Analytics/Performance Cookies. JD Supra also uses the following analytic tools to help us analyze the performance of our Website and Services as well as how visitors use our Website and Services:

  • HubSpot - For more information about HubSpot cookies, please visit legal.hubspot.com/privacy-policy.
  • New Relic - For more information on New Relic cookies, please visit www.newrelic.com/privacy.
  • Google Analytics - For more information on Google Analytics cookies, visit www.google.com/policies. To opt-out of being tracked by Google Analytics across all websites visit http://tools.google.com/dlpage/gaoptout. This will allow you to download and install a Google Analytics cookie-free web browser.

Facebook, Twitter and other Social Network Cookies. Our content pages allow you to share content appearing on our Website and Services to your social media accounts through the "Like," "Tweet," or similar buttons displayed on such pages. To accomplish this Service, we embed code that such third party social networks provide and that we do not control. These buttons know that you are logged in to your social network account and therefore such social networks could also know that you are viewing the JD Supra Website.

Controlling and Deleting Cookies

If you would like to change how a browser uses cookies, including blocking or deleting cookies from the JD Supra Website and Services you can do so by changing the settings in your web browser. To control cookies, most browsers allow you to either accept or reject all cookies, only accept certain types of cookies, or prompt you every time a site wishes to save a cookie. It's also easy to delete cookies that are already saved on your device by a browser.

The processes for controlling and deleting cookies vary depending on which browser you use. To find out how to do so with a particular browser, you can use your browser's "Help" function or alternatively, you can visit http://www.aboutcookies.org which explains, step-by-step, how to control and delete cookies in most browsers.

Updates to This Policy

We may update this cookie policy and our Privacy Policy from time-to-time, particularly as technology changes. You can always check this page for the latest version. We may also notify you of changes to our privacy policy by email.

Contacting JD Supra

If you have any questions about how we use cookies and other tracking technologies, please contact us at: privacy@jdsupra.com.

- hide

This website uses cookies to improve user experience, track anonymous site usage, store authorization tokens and permit sharing on social media networks. By continuing to browse this website you accept the use of cookies. Click here to read more about how we use cookies.