What’s the global crop outlook for 2018?

by Thomson Reuters Financial & Risk
Contact

Photography: Ilya NaymushinPhotography: Ilya Naymushin

 

A potential landmark for U.S. soy, alongside Black Sea production records and an uncertain EU growing season are analyzed in the latest global crop outlook report from our Lanworth agriculture research team.


  1. Soy plantings may surpass U.S. corn for first time since 1983, with prices and lower production costs making it a more profitable crop for farmers.
  2. Black Sea farmers have continued to break production records, with Russia now the world’s largest wheat exporter.
  3. Global crop outlook report by our Agricultural Research (Lanworth) team on Eikon provides a comprehensive insight on industry developments.

The essentials of the global trade outlook for corn, wheat, rapeseed and soy have been captured in the latest report by Thomson Reuters Agricultural Research (Lanworth).

This comprehensive insight available on Thomson Reuters Eikon will help to comprehend future crop flows, output and pricing, as well as the impact of weather, supply chain disruptions and geopolitical events.

In this piece, we look at the outlook for crop production in the Black Sea, the European Union and the United States for summer 2018.

Getting ahead of the market

United States crop production

U.S. corn and soy production has given us back-to-back record seasons, and so far, the outlook is for things to stay strong, especially for soybeans as they continue to gain acreage on corn and other crops.

Stable economic and weather conditions have our current U.S. corn and soy production outlooks at 14.3 (13.6 – 15.0) and 4.31 (4.10 – 4.60) billion bushels respectively.

Gain valuable insight into the world’s agriculture markets with Thomson Reuters Eikon Commodities – Agriculture

We expect corn and soy plantings to hover around 90.4 and 90.1 million acres, 2.7 percent and 1 percent above the current estimate of 88 and 89.9 million acres released in the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) March Prospective Plantings Report.

U.S plantings in 2018U.S plantings in 2018

 

As last year, rebounding soy prices and lower production costs make soy a more profitable crop for farmers, which is pushing for another year where “King Corn” is brought down another notch.

In fact, it is quite possible that soy plantings will surpass corn for the first time since 1983, as suggested by the USDA in the prospective plantings report.

Download the report for full analysis on U.S. crop production

European Union

The past two seasons were not ideal for production in the European Union, as crops were stricken with excessive precipitation or dryness accompanied by heat waves.

This season, with minor to no winterkill and sufficient precipitation in spring and early summer, wheat and rapeseed production is set to be approximately 156 and 22.7 million tons, respectively.

Watch: Agriculture Weather Dashboard Maps

Production, however, can drop to 138 and 19.6 million tons with late-season spring frosts during rapeseed blooming and drought in spring and summer.

On the other hand, with adequate weather during the season, especially during wheat heading and rapeseed blooming stages, production may reach 162 and 24 million tons.

Soft Wheat Yields in the EU-28

Higher prices and increased demand for rapeseed will likely lead to farmers sowing more winter rapeseed this year.

However, unfavorable weather conditions locally across Europe (Germany and Poland, in particular) have prevented farmers from completing intended plantings, which partially offsets the potential for increased rapeseed areas.

Low barley prices will continue to decrease its planted area, as farmers switch to more profitable crops.

Download the report here for full analysis on European crop production

The Black Sea

For the past couple of years, Russia and Ukraine have been breaking one grain production record after another. What has been the cause behind this tremendous rise in grain production? Do we foresee further increases?

Starting in the late 1990s, yields in both countries began a steadily upward trend. Today, Russia and Ukraine are among the world’s largest wheat producers.

In 2017/18, Russia produced 85 million tons; Ukraine 27 million tons. Russia now holds the title of the world’s largest exporter.

Black Sea Wheat Yields

The major drivers have been higher investments in agriculture, land privatization, and the creation of so-called “agroholdings,” all of which resulted in better inputs and technology.

Ukrainian and Russian farmers are using better quality seeds, along with more efficient crop protection, fertilizers and irrigation. In addition, for the past few seasons they were lucky to get the right weather at the right time.

Download the report for full analysis on Black Sea crop production

Thomson Reuters Eikon Commodities Agriculture

Written by:

Thomson Reuters Financial & Risk
Contact
more
less

Thomson Reuters Financial & Risk on:

Readers' Choice 2017
Reporters on Deadline

"My best business intelligence, in one easy email…"

Your first step to building a free, personalized, morning email brief covering pertinent authors and topics on JD Supra:
Sign up using*

Already signed up? Log in here

*By using the service, you signify your acceptance of JD Supra's Privacy Policy.
Custom Email Digest
Privacy Policy (Updated: October 8, 2015):
hide

JD Supra provides users with access to its legal industry publishing services (the "Service") through its website (the "Website") as well as through other sources. Our policies with regard to data collection and use of personal information of users of the Service, regardless of the manner in which users access the Service, and visitors to the Website are set forth in this statement ("Policy"). By using the Service, you signify your acceptance of this Policy.

Information Collection and Use by JD Supra

JD Supra collects users' names, companies, titles, e-mail address and industry. JD Supra also tracks the pages that users visit, logs IP addresses and aggregates non-personally identifiable user data and browser type. This data is gathered using cookies and other technologies.

The information and data collected is used to authenticate users and to send notifications relating to the Service, including email alerts to which users have subscribed; to manage the Service and Website, to improve the Service and to customize the user's experience. This information is also provided to the authors of the content to give them insight into their readership and help them to improve their content, so that it is most useful for our users.

JD Supra does not sell, rent or otherwise provide your details to third parties, other than to the authors of the content on JD Supra.

If you prefer not to enable cookies, you may change your browser settings to disable cookies; however, please note that rejecting cookies while visiting the Website may result in certain parts of the Website not operating correctly or as efficiently as if cookies were allowed.

Email Choice/Opt-out

Users who opt in to receive emails may choose to no longer receive e-mail updates and newsletters by selecting the "opt-out of future email" option in the email they receive from JD Supra or in their JD Supra account management screen.

Security

JD Supra takes reasonable precautions to insure that user information is kept private. We restrict access to user information to those individuals who reasonably need access to perform their job functions, such as our third party email service, customer service personnel and technical staff. However, please note that no method of transmitting or storing data is completely secure and we cannot guarantee the security of user information. Unauthorized entry or use, hardware or software failure, and other factors may compromise the security of user information at any time.

If you have reason to believe that your interaction with us is no longer secure, you must immediately notify us of the problem by contacting us at info@jdsupra.com. In the unlikely event that we believe that the security of your user information in our possession or control may have been compromised, we may seek to notify you of that development and, if so, will endeavor to do so as promptly as practicable under the circumstances.

Sharing and Disclosure of Information JD Supra Collects

Except as otherwise described in this privacy statement, JD Supra will not disclose personal information to any third party unless we believe that disclosure is necessary to: (1) comply with applicable laws; (2) respond to governmental inquiries or requests; (3) comply with valid legal process; (4) protect the rights, privacy, safety or property of JD Supra, users of the Service, Website visitors or the public; (5) permit us to pursue available remedies or limit the damages that we may sustain; and (6) enforce our Terms & Conditions of Use.

In the event there is a change in the corporate structure of JD Supra such as, but not limited to, merger, consolidation, sale, liquidation or transfer of substantial assets, JD Supra may, in its sole discretion, transfer, sell or assign information collected on and through the Service to one or more affiliated or unaffiliated third parties.

Links to Other Websites

This Website and the Service may contain links to other websites. The operator of such other websites may collect information about you, including through cookies or other technologies. If you are using the Service through the Website and link to another site, you will leave the Website and this Policy will not apply to your use of and activity on those other sites. We encourage you to read the legal notices posted on those sites, including their privacy policies. We shall have no responsibility or liability for your visitation to, and the data collection and use practices of, such other sites. This Policy applies solely to the information collected in connection with your use of this Website and does not apply to any practices conducted offline or in connection with any other websites.

Changes in Our Privacy Policy

We reserve the right to change this Policy at any time. Please refer to the date at the top of this page to determine when this Policy was last revised. Any changes to our privacy policy will become effective upon posting of the revised policy on the Website. By continuing to use the Service or Website following such changes, you will be deemed to have agreed to such changes. If you do not agree with the terms of this Policy, as it may be amended from time to time, in whole or part, please do not continue using the Service or the Website.

Contacting JD Supra

If you have any questions about this privacy statement, the practices of this site, your dealings with this Web site, or if you would like to change any of the information you have provided to us, please contact us at: info@jdsupra.com.

- hide
*With LinkedIn, you don't need to create a separate login to manage your free JD Supra account, and we can make suggestions based on your needs and interests. We will not post anything on LinkedIn in your name. Or, sign up using your email address.